South Bay:
Before we start, let’s be clear about the time frame of the business we’re discussing. I say that because it’s easy to forget the sales closures we are discussing for January are for deals cut in December, or possibly late November. The average escrow time is still 30-45 days. That helps to explain the timing of some shifts in the raw numbers. Because fewer deals are cut in the time frame from Thansgiving to the New Year, traditionally the holiday season, it takes only a few more deals, or a few less dollars, to shift the percentages dramatically in January. Given those qualifications, let’s look at the statistics for January in the South Bay.
It’s not unusual for January real estate sales to be fewer than December, though the numbers have been stabilizing since the end of the pandemic. January of 2025 was only down 17% across the South Bay from January 2024. The year before, January of 2024, sales were off 24% from 2023, and the year before was down 28% from the 2022 sales. The surprise is in 2026 starting the year with an out-size 35% decline from December of 2025. (See the area break down below for details.)
The jump from a years long trail of improving numbers to a 35% drop in month to month sales volume, especially when spread relatively equally across the four areas, draws attention. R emember the Hill is the smallest of the areas and just because of the nature of mathematics it has wide percentile swings.
As you see, our month to month sales volume has dropped significantly across the South Bay, and has made a significant drop from the historical upward trend, as noted above.
Monthly median prices have also dropped in the Beach and PV Hill areas, both typically more volatile in response to economic markets. The Harbor and Inland areas, on the other hand have shown modest growth in median value from December into January. Could it be we are seeing a shift in valuation, from the flashy high end properties to bread and butter properties?
Year over year prices seem to be down across the South Bay with the exception of the Harbor area, a surprise for the largest market area of the South Bay. A 5% increase in the median price the for largest volume area in the south Bay is a huge stop sign on the path to market.
Sales are down everywhere except the Hill which represents a mere 14% of the month’s sales. It’s easy to say three out of four markers indicate slower business for the coming year.
In the past the format of the newsletter would go on to discuss details of each of the market areas. We’re going to change that a bit starting this month. Rather than a textual description, we’re including just the statistics for each area. If you, as the reader, have additional questions, just give us a call and we’ll walk through the numbers with you.
In addition, we’ll be including charts, showing the shifting business as the months go by. Please let us know if you like the transition to less words and more pictures.
Beach:
M-m, vol: 53, -41%, med: 1,675,000, -8%
y-y, vol: -17%, med: -29%
ytd, vol: -17%,, med: -29%,
ytd vs 2019: vol -97%; med 23%
Harbor:
M-m, vol: 182, -39%, med: 795,000, 2%
y-y, vol: -25%, med: 5% Is the Harbor shifting? Or just a shortage of inventory?
ytd, vol: -25%,, med: 5%,
ytd vs 2019: vol -96%; med 31%
Hill:
M-m, vol: 49, 9%, med: 1,820,000, -9%
y-y, vol: 53%, med: -4%
ytd, vol: 53%,, med: -4%,
ytd vs 2019: vol -94%; med 25%
Inland:
M-m, vol: 74, -36%, med: 875,000, 4%
y-y, vol: -15%, med: -3%
ytd, vol: -15%,, med: -3%,
ytd vs 2019: vol -96%; med 18%
Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena
Photo by Carl Clark