South Bay:
First glance at the month to month December numbers: A 12% increase in December sales brought smiles to a lot of faces, until they realized this only corrected half of the 23% drop in November sales volume. This past year saw a lot of one-step-forward-two-steps-back. The annual numbers make it look like that will continue to be the pattern into 2026. Median prices found gains for the Beach and the Hill, while prices slid in the Harbor and Inland areas.
Year over year, December sales were mixed, with sales volume dropping at the Beach and on the Hill. At the same time, the Harbor and Inland areas experienced solid increases in sales. Median prices for December showed a reverse pattern, with the median increasing at the Beach and on the Hill, while it dropped in the Harbor and Inland areas. This has all the earmarks of being a market peak.
Without getting into details about the monthly statistics, those are covered below, let’s move on to what the year over year data reveals. In the end, 2025 showed a solid 4% growth in sales over 2024. This broke down as: Beach 10%, Harbor 3%, Hill 6% and Inland 1%. It’s important to note the sales volume over the final four months of 2025 were nearly all lower than the same month in the preceding year, showing a persistent drop in sales. Where the early months of the year were overall positive, despite choppy performance, across the board, there has been a slow decline in comparison to last year.
The year began with double digit increases in sales volume across the South Bay, registering 11% in January and 19% in February. The number of homes sold bounced around a lot during the year and ended with a mere 4% increase in sales volume over 2024, with three months out of 2025 being negative.
A slowing in the sales volume doesn’t necessarily dictate a slowing in the median price, although this year it did. The 2025 median for each area showed a 1-2% increase in price everywhere except the Beach were the median trebled to an astounding 6%. One might suspect a bit of investment fever in pricier neighborhoods. Several decades after being a disreputable neighborhood of the displaced and homeless, the Beach areas have become the place to invest extravagantly.
Interestingly, this aligns neatly with a statement in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Report of 1/14/26. “Several Districts also noted that spending was stronger among higher-income consumers with increased spending on luxury goods, travel, tourism, and experiential activities. Meanwhile, low to moderate income consumers were seen to be increasingly price sensitive and hesitant to spend on nonessential goods and services.”
Note, this is not yet a reversal in price increases, like that seen in 2023, but is a distinct slowing of the increase. The rate of increase has fallen from the double digits of 2021 and 2022 to barely remaining positive at about half the rate of 2024. One could easily envision median prices going negative again in 2026.
Such an event might be readily termed “a correction” given that current median pricing is showing roughly 40% above the median from 2019, the last year prior to the Covid pandemic and associated market disruption. That 40% calculates out to about a 6% annual increase, three times greater inflation than the 2% sought by the Federal Reserve.
It has been said the only reason median prices are still climbing at all is the shortage of homes available on the market. Inventory figures appear to be off about 15% from the peak in 2019, just before the pandemic. When the Fed responded to the frozen market and interest rates plummeted, inventory levels fell equally rapidly. By 2022 inventory had dropped to 50% of the 2019 levels. Those home sales, and the huge refinance boom that accompanied them put roughly 40% of the homes in California on a 3%+/- mortgage interest rate. Those homeowners are only selling if absolutely necessary, which is keeping the inventory artificially low and simultaneously keeping median sales prices artificially high.
Beach:
In December, home sales at the Beach increased to 90 units, or 11% greater than November. As noted above, that did not erase the 23% decrease in sales from October to November. At the same time, the median price increased by 4% to $1,825,500.
Compared to December of 2024, the number of residential sales has declined by 16% while the median price increased 1%.
For the year 2025, the number of homes sold at the Beach increased by 10% over 2024. Versus sales for 2019, the market remains depressed by 19%. Sales volume is increasing slightly, but it feels depressingly slow.
For the same period, the median price increased by 6%, which has inflated 45% since 2019.
Harbor:
By virtue of mathematical probability, the Harbor area is the most stable of the four demographic areas in the South Bay. December home sales at the Harbor rose 14% to 298 units, very much in line with the total South Bay increase of 12% over November numbers. At the same time, the median price fell by $779,275, for 4% drop.
On a year over year basis, home sales this December exceeded sales in December of 2024 by 19%. Opposing the volume gain, the median price declined by 3% for the same period.
Looking at the full year, 2025 saw more homes sold by 3%, with the median price increasing by 1%. The bump up in sales volume can be viewed as positive recovery from over-exuberant financing of the Covid years. The median price increase is simply an aggressive response to the low inventory.
Sales for last year fall 22% the volume in 2019, and median prices are currently 40% above those of 2019.
Hill:
November versus December sales on the Hill brought in a zero change for the 45 units sold. The median price showed an increase of 1% to $2 million even for the final month of the year.
Year over year, December ended at a 10% decline in the number of homes sold in 2025, while jumping up for a 14% rise in the median values of those homes. As always, the small sample size of PV sales may lead to extreme results, so feel free to call if you have a specific question.
For the year as a whole, compared to 2024, 6% more homes were sold on the Peninsula in 2025 and the median price was 2% greater. Compared to 2019, sales volume was down by 17% while the median price was up 46%.
Inland:
The number of homes sold in the Inland area for December jumped 14%, to 116, from November, while the median price fell by 3% to $838,500.
Annually, December 2025 gained 9% in sales volume over the same month in 2024. Median price for that period fell by 6%.
Inland sales enjoyed a 1% increase year over year in 2025, while also seeing a 1% increase in median price. Compared to 2019, sales volume remained suppressed by 19%, while median price ended 2025 with a 33% increase.
Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena
Photo by Carl Clark
