Expected Price Drop May Cause Double-Dip Recession

While we can all agree that high prices and low inventory is not a recipe for a healthy real estate market, reversing the trend too quickly can cause issues as well. Prices are predicted to start declining towards the end of 2022 and throughout 2023 and 2024. This may be good for prospective homebuyers, but it’s not good for sellers who purchased relatively recently.

A sharp decline in prices could result in negative equity for some people looking to sell, meaning that they won’t be able to sell normally and may have to go into foreclosure. This is not the same type of recession that we’ve just experienced, but it’s a recession nonetheless. Fortunately, it’s not likely to result in a crash, since the continued low inventory is a positive for sellers. The market is expected to begin to stabilize in 2025, but not without steep economic losses.

Photo by John Fornander on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/how-to-prepare-for-the-reo-resurgence/83443/

LA South Bay Real Estate: The Recession Has Arrived

In a normal year one would expect April to be the turning point for the LA real estate market. March is still cold and the children are still in school for another 10 weeks. April’s the month when the weather turns warm, the flower buds poke up, and the buyers come out to start the spring buying season. It hasn’t happened that way this year.

Prices had gone through the ceiling by the end of 2021, much of the activity stimulated by fear of escalating mortgage interest rates. Usher in 2022–January and February were typically slow and in March home sales bounced up like an indicator of business as usual. But, interest rates continued to climb and April ended with the total number of home sales down instead of up. Likewise, total sales dollars were down across the South Bay.

Number of Homes Sold

Judging from the charts, entry level homes in the Harbor area were clearly the center of activity for South Bay real estate. As interest rates pushed against the 5% mark, panic set in among first time buyers who had been outbid multiple times. Prices went up as high as buyers could afford, a number that shrinks amazingly fast with each tenth of a percent increase in the interest rate.

Across the South Bay, the number of homes sold in April dropped by -4% from March, which had been an increase of 59% over the prior month. As we see from the chart below, sales were uneven between the various areas.

On the entry level front, at the same time Harbor area home sales were dropping off, Inland homes gained sales. On the high end, sales on the Palos Verdes peninsula were also facing declining numbers, while Beach area sales increased.

So far declining sales counts have been modest, but a decline overall, coupled with a decline in half of the individual areas covered indicates that buyers are pulling back. Part of the resistance is a matter of simply being priced out of the market. Another important piece is the anticipation of price corrections in the near future. We have heard multiple buyers say they are watching and waiting for lower prices later this year.

At this point we’re well into the second quarter of the year and it looks as though those folks may be on track for some savings. even some of our most gung-ho pundits are beginning to see a market downturn on the horizon.

Median Price Sold

Interestingly, Harbor area prices went up at the same time the number of sales went down.The March to April price increase was a modest +6% compared to a +21% increase over April of last year. Similarly, the Beach cities had a month over month increase of +4%, while showing +19% year over year. While sales prices are still rising in those areas, the increase is a fraction of what it was last year.

Sold prices on the Hill continued to slide downwards. Because the February increase in the median price was created by the sale of new construction, and that building phase is now sold out, a downward turn in median price is expected. We anticipate that leveling off soon.

In the Inland area the median price for homes sold during April of 2022, was +12% greater than sales in April of 2021. By comparison, the median price of those sold in March of 2022 versus April of 2022 decreased by -1%. It’s a modest decrease that points to the direction of the South Bay real estate market for the balance of the year.

Area Sales Dollars

The total dollar value of home sales in the South Bay usually tracks right along with the number of units sold. The few times it differs are important times like these when the number of homes sold is dropping, and/or the sales prices are dropping. Today, of the four areas we track, PV Hill has a declining number of sales, both in comparison to last year and in comparison to last month. As we noted above, the area also is declining in total dollars compared to last year and last month.

As we discussed in last month’s issue, some of the reason for the drop is found in new construction homes that sold at a much higher price than the typical Palos Verdes resale home. The rest of it can be found in longer days on market waiting for a buyer, and in price reductions.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Beach cities showed gains last month for both number of units sold and for the total sales value of those homes. The only decline this month for the Beach was in number sold compared to April of last year. Sales this April were off by -21%.

The Harbor area still trended upward in dollar value, both month over month and year over year. But, the number of units sold was down for both time measurements. The price competition was very stiff in what is generally an entry level market. During the past couple years, bidding wars and over-asking sales prices have kept the dollars high. The April numbers show that changing rapidly.

Total dollar sales for the Inland community increased 15% month over month. That was the highest growth of all four areas. Scanning those individual transactions showed an odd pattern. Sales in the price range from about $325K up to about $750K were a familiar mix of some under asking price, some at asking and some above asking. The degree of variance was about what one would expect. Unexpectedly, for sales over $750K, nearly every property sold above asking price, and in many cases well above asking.

We found no clear explanation for why this phenomena occurred. There is a suspicion that buyers who were priced out of Beach properties may have shifted their bidding wars into the increasingly popular parts of west Torrance. This theory is supported by the distribution of sales among the various neighborhoods.

In Summary

In the table below are the core statistics comparing April to March of this year, and comparing April of this year to April of 2021. The prevalence of negative numbers is convincing evidence that high prices and high interest rates are pushing the South Bay real estate market into a recession.

Notable Properties

One of the more interesting properties sold in April is a four bedroom, five bathroom home located in west Torrance. The home was purchased by the seller as their family home in 1990 for just above $360K. The children grew up and the parents remodeled in 2022 and sold the house.

As would be expected in a good neighborhood with a contemporary remodel, the home sold for over the asking price of $2.7M. The final selling price was slightly over $3M. and just happened to be almost exactly $360K over the asking price.

In the 32 years that family owned the home it appreciated at an average rate in excess of $84K per year. It’s the classic “American Dream.”

Main photo by Amy Vosters on Unsplash

Seller Financing Makes a Return

With mortgage rates on the rise, more and more buyers are struggling to obtain loans. Given this, an infrequently-used financing option is starting to make a comeback. Seller financing is an process in which the seller of a property offers to carry the mortgage, and the buyer will then owe the seller rather than a lender. This doesn’t have the same stringent requirements that mortgage loan approval has, so it’s much more accessible to buyers.

Seller financing tends to be attractive to buyers. Not only is it more accessible, but the interest rate is usually lower. It also doesn’t incur any fees such as loan origination fees. But why would a seller want to do this? Well, there are a couple reasons. Firstly, because seller financing is so attractive to buyers, it can improve the property’s marketability. There’s an additional benefit, though. It allows the seller to defer part of the taxes on sale profits. The seller only pays taxes on the principal as it is received. At the time of sale, they pay taxes on only the amount the buyer paid. This can include the down payment and any partial loans the buyer received.

Photo by Kostiantyn Li on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/rising-rates-bring-back-seller-financing/83362/

How Does a Pending Sale Fall Through?

Many homebuyers aren’t sure what to do when a home they want to make an offer on is in pending status. If you really want the home, the best thing to do is to make a backup offer. If you submit an offer normally, the seller is still contractually obligated to honor the original offer if it doesn’t fall through, even if your offer is better. But don’t get your hopes up — most pending sales carry through to completion, since it merely means that the seller has accepted an offer.

What does it mean if the sale does fall through, though? In certain situations, this could be a red flag, but in others, the problem lies elsewhere. Sometimes the home inspection reveals issues that the buyer (and possibly the seller) wasn’t aware of, which could change your mind as well. The bank could decide to cancel an unapproved short sale, which could entail more legal complications than you want to deal with. Other times, the problem was with the buyer, perhaps not being able to acquire a loan. If the issue is with contingencies that have yet to be met, the home may be listed as contingent rather than pending.

Photo by Sasun Bughdaryan on Unsplash

Bay Area Prices Remain High Despite Rising Interest Rates

The usual effect of rising interest rates is a decrease in demand, as buyers would rather wait to lock in a lower rate. Decreased demand should then translate to lower prices, since sellers want to encourage buyers. Not so in the San Francisco Bay Area right now. Prices are still going up, and demand didn’t really go down all that much.

The culprit? A couple of factors. Most significantly, inventory is extremely low in the Bay Area. Buyers are encouraged to take opportunities where they can, since they don’t come up often. That often means paying less-than-ideal prices. Secondly, the Bay Area is generally a high-income area and already has high prices. Even with rising prices, most people able to purchase there aren’t going to be suddenly priced out. Those looking for a median-income or lower household aren’t looking in that area to begin with.

Photo by Sid Saxena on Unsplash

More: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/mortgage-rates-home-prices-17120800.php

Millennials May Be Looking to Upsize

The Millennials are currently the generation that makes up most first-time homebuyers, and they’ve certainly been looking for homes with home offices so they can work from home, or extra rooms for their young kids. But there are also many Millennials that already own a home, and they’re probably aiming for the same thing. They will also want to make sure the home has a layout suitable to their needs.

For those Millennials that aren’t first-time buyers, it’s likely they’ll want to upsize. Even though they’re likely rather cash-poor due to the economic circumstances both in their early adulthood and now, some of them may have good equity in their homes because home prices are so high right now. That could help them to purchase something larger by selling their current home.

Photo by Laurel and Michael Evans on Unsplash

How to Become a Property Manager

Property management is a practical field to enter if you are worried about economic stability. It’s incredibly recession proof, as housing is a necessity and therefore people will be renting properties regardless of the economic conditions. But you can’t just decide on a whim to be a property manager — it has legal requirements and best practices.

In the vast majority of cases, being a property manager requires a broker’s license. There are certain cases in which it doesn’t, but they would not apply for rental properties, which are the bulk of managed properties. If you don’t want to get a broker’s license, though, you can consider managing commercial properties, but there would still be many restrictions.

First Tuesday, a real estate journal, has assembled a Property Management 101 infographic, complete with links to articles and PDFs for additional explication. This contains more specific details about the legal requirements, other applicable laws, and market information. You can find the infographic here: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/property-management-101/82682/

Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on Unsplash

March Real Estate Market Trends

Prices are still going up, as are interest rates. Despite this, the market is currently going strong. It’s unclear whether this is temporary or seasonal, or part of a larger trend, but the near future of real estate is looking fairly good.

The reason for the rate increase is a recent increase to the federal funds rate of 25 basis points. The initial announcement didn’t have an immediate effect, but later caused an increase in interest rates. This, in addition to rising prices, has contributed to a decrease in home sales. However, it’s still above pre-pandemic levels, and supply is improving, which should help keep prices in line.

Part of the reason for supply increases is increased construction. Though construction actually decreased in the Western US, it has increased elsewhere and is at its strongest since 2006. Builders remain confident despite a slight drop in confidence, from 81 to 79, due to increased costs.

Photo by Parker Coffman on Unsplash

2022 Forecast is Unclear, But Points to Likely Slowdown

The results of a November 2021 survey of real estate professionals about the 2022 forecast are in, and they’re rather split. 41% expect prices to continue to rise and 41% expect them to fall. The remaining 18% predict prices will remain about where they are. Keep in mind, though, the survey was conducted a few months ago and may not reflect experts’ current beliefs. In addition, all of those who predicted continued rise in price conceded that the rate of increase will probably be slower.

There are a few factors pointing to slowdown, whether it’s a decline or a slower rise in home prices. Interest rates are increasing, which decreases buyer demand and buyer purchasing power, pulling down prices. The job recovery is still lagging behind. Forbearance exits mean greater inventory. Even global events are threatening to destabilize the economy, and uncertain buyers makes for less frequent buyers.

Photo by Billy Huynh on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/housing-experts-divided-on-home-price-forecast/82154/

If You Must Purchase Now, Be Ready for the Long Haul

We’re currently either at or approaching the top of the market, which means it’s generally not a good time to buy. Sometimes it’s inevitable, but that just means you need to be prepared for losses if you don’t keep your home long enough to gather equity. When you buy at the top of the market, your home’s value will go down before it goes up, so you’ll need to wait a while in order to sell at a profit.

If you’re an investor, don’t look at flipping right now. It’s just not going to provide the return on investment that you want, especially with construction costs being high. Instead, look at purchasing rental property, as rent prices are also on the rise. You can collect rental income now and sell much later down the line when the cycle completes itself.

Photo by Félix Lam on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/buying-at-the-top-of-the-market-prepare-to-stay-put/81992/

Prepare For Another Competitive Spring Market

April 2021 was one of the most fiercely competitive months for real estate in history, in no small part due to the pandemic frenzy. But spring is always one of the more active seasons in the real estate market, being right after the holidays. And this year is not going to be an exception.

What sparked so many bidding wars last year is high demand and low inventory, and neither of those things has changed. Inventory is still 43% below pre-pandemic levels, and there are still plenty of Millennials, as well as some Gen Z, aging into first-time homeownership. Where there is some difference is the current state of interest rates, but it’s still going to result in the same type of market. Last year, interest rates were staying low, so buyers knew it was a good time to buy. Now, interest rates are expected to increase throughout 2022. In the long term, this will reduce demand, but as long as the increases are expected and not already here, demand will go up as buyers want to take advantage of the rates before they increase.

Photo by Joel Holland on Unsplash

More: https://fortune.com/2022/01/18/homebuyers-brutal-spring-housing-market-inventory-interest-rates/

Market Stability Anticipated In 2024

With government support having ended, this may prompt people to think the economy has stabilized and recovery is imminent. But this is just the precursor to a stable market. The market needs time to adapt under normal conditions, and probably won’t become stable again until 2024. The main factor in overall recovery is the job market, which has yet to fully recover, and a stable real estate market requires construction to catch up to demand.

Some policies remain from government actions during the recession, though. Three laws — SB 10, AB 345, and AB 571 — will help out in construction efforts. SB 10 allows more areas to be zoned for up to 10 units, AB 345 allows ADUs to be sold separately from the primary residence, and AB 571 prohibits impact fees on affordable housing. Two more laws, SB 263 and AB 948, reformed bias training for real estate professionals. This legislation should have lasting impact in making the recovery more comfortable.

Photo by Logan Cameron on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/2021-in-review-and-a-forecast-for-2022-and-beyond/81281/

Investments in US at Risk From China’s Economic Struggles

Real estate investment in China is a big business, and one of the biggest investors is a company called Evergrande. The problem is that Evergrande has quite a bit of debt and is rather close to defaulting. The company certainly doesn’t control a majority of the Chinese real estate market, but it’s significant enough to put a dent in consumer confidence if it goes under.

This is merely a symptom of the actual problem with China’s real estate investment market. The truth is that China’s population has been falling dramatically in recent years, but investors haven’t scaled back their investments. This has led to a significant overabundance of supply, as well as compounding investor debt.

Why is this important for the US? Well, a large number of our foreign investors are from China, especially in the commercial sector but also in residential. Chinese investment in US real estate has been slowing already, but it’s high enough that a market crash in China would definitely have aftershocks in the US real estate market. Fortunately, because our market actually has the opposite problem as China — too little supply — investors bailing out and selling could just open up more opportunities for buyers.

Photo by Chastagner Thierry on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/chinas-looming-real-estate-crisis-casts-a-shadow-here-in-california-too/80252/

2022 Market Projections

Next year is expected to be a bit calmer than this year was. An estimated 439,800 sales are projected for this year by the end of the year, but the model predicts only 416,800 for 2022, a 5.2% decrease. It had increased 6.8% in 2021 from 2020. House prices will still be going up, albeit at a much slower rate. The median home price will have increased over 20% this year. It’s only expected to increase about 5% next year. This will also mean a 3% decrease in housing affordability, from 26% to 23%. The forecast assumes that the pandemic situation can be kept under control, primarily focusing on low supply during a recovering market. 2022’s market is likely to be better for prospective homebuyers who were pushed out due to heavy competition. Those who already couldn’t afford to buy still won’t have much luck, but the slowing rate of price growth is hopeful for them.

Photo by Alberto Frías on Unsplash

More: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2021releases/2022housingforecast

C.A.R.’s New Educational Campaign Aimed at Latinx Homebuyers

The California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) has launched a new website,  www.BringYourFamilyHome.com. This page will provide information to prospective homebuyers, especially aimed at first-time homebuyers, about financial literacy, credit scores, steps in the process, and how to contact agents. And C.A.R. hopes to address a long-standing issue by presenting the page in both English and Spanish.

California has a significant Latinx population, and many of them believe they aren’t able to afford a home. While certainly some of them don’t have enough income for the high prices in California, a significant number have misconceptions about what they can and can’t afford. 85% of Latinx prospective homebuyers still see owning a home as a big part of the American Dream, and the majority of those haven’t given up on it. But four out of five aren’t aware that they qualify for mortgage loans. 25% of Latinx people that are renting actually don’t need to because they can already afford to purchase, but don’t realize that and aren’t aware of the process. By providing educational materials in Spanish, C.A.R. hopes to help many more Latinx households achieve homeownership.

Photo by Tobias Gonzales on Unsplash

More: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2021releases/hispanicadcamp

Competition Starting to Soften

The 2021 housing market has experienced heavy competition from buyers, with most sellers receiving multiple high-priced offers. The peak was back in April, with nearly three-quarters — 74.3% — of listings generating at least two offers. While the numbers have been dropping off, with July’s percentage at 62.1%, it wasn’t until August that it fell just slightly below the prior year’s percentage for the month, at 58.8%.

The percentage is still over half, but that’s generally pretty normal. The current numbers are to be expected as far as seasonal variation. What’s even more indicative of a return to normality is the drop in number of offers and speed of sale. Agents are noticing decreases from 25-30 offers to 5-7 offers. In addition, a bit fewer offers are above asking price.

That’s just national averages, though. There are still some highly competitive markets, and the most competitive ones are actually becoming more so. 8 of the 10 most competitive markets actually had an increase in bidding wars between July and August.

Photo by GR Stocks on Unsplash

More: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-lot-of-buyers-have-had-enough-bidding-wars-for-homes-falls-to-lowest-level-since-2020-11631550977

August 2021 Real Estate – A Good Market by Any Measure

Sales Volume Down

Back in 2019 the first eight months of the year saw 5,706 homes sold. During the same period in 2020, in the early response to Covid-19, sales dropped off by 12% to 5,003. As the market came out of the Covid doldrums in 2021, sales took a dramatic 57% jump. It’s most easily seen looking at the sales volume for the Harbor area in March on the chart below.

Part of that jump was the approximately 700 sales which didn’t happen in 2020. We don’t know how many of those “deferred” transactions have jumped back into the market. As of August the South Bay sales were at 6845, a 20% increase over the 2019 sales for this point in the year.

Seeing that a huge part of the March increase came in Harbor home sales tells part of the tale. The biggest piece of that market in recent months has been entry level or first time home buyers. Closely following are investors in small income properties.

Stories from the street imply that the growth in ADU additions and conversions has had an out size impact on that market as well. Both homeowners and landlords benefit from having additional living spaces.

For right now, the pandemic appears to be fading, which would tend to boost sales. Similarly, the low mortgage interest rates continue to support the market. At the same time we’re moving into fall and winter, when sales typically slow. August showed just a hint of a seasonal downward movement. September should be a directional indicator.

Sales Prices Up

That jump in sales volume was accompanied by a bigger jump in the median price of the homes selling. Pent up demand and low interest rates combined to create bidding wars and drive median prices up. As of the end of August, the median price of a home at the Beach was $1.7M. That number was $1.5M in 2019 and $1.4M in 2020.

Median prices on Palos Verdes trended about the same at roughly $100K more per unit.The Inland cities and the Harbor area both showed mosest increases in the $50K neighborhood.

Area Sales Dollars Slowing

The monthly sales value of homes sold across the Los Angeles South Bay for August declined in all areas except the Palos Verdes Peninsula.

Compared to July, the number of sales on the Hill increased 8% in August, with a 2% increase in median price. That translated into a $150M increase in monthly sales since the first of the year.

Activity in the Inland cities has been stable for three months already, having risen about $50K per month since the first of January.

Monthly sales at the Beach and in the Harbor area pulled back for a second month in succession. Looking at the blue line for the Beach, we see a sharp drop in July which softened considerably in August. The Harbor area shows a steady decline over the same period.

As of August monthly sales totaled ~$150M higher than the beginning of the year at the Beach. During the same period monthly sales totals were up ~100M. As we move into the fall and winter season these numbers should slow somewhat.

Statistics – by Month, by Year

Interestingly, the number of homes sold in the Beach cities was unchanged from July, while the median price increased 6% at the same time.

There were 175 homes sold in both months. So how did Beach homes grow from a median price of $1.6M to a median price of $1.7M in one month? In July, 27 of those properties sold below $1M. In August, only 20 sales closed escrow for under $1M. The entire market simply moved up, pushing the median price up $100K in one month.

On a month to month basis, prices are holding or increasing across the board. At the same time we’re seeing slowing or flat sales everwhere but Palos Verdes. Continued slowing for the season is to be expected.

There’s still a lot of buyer traffic at open houses, but sales volume is slowing and buyers are showing price resistance. There’s also some chatter out there about what’s beginning to look like inflation in the real estate market. My crystal ball is showing a slow steady ride through the next month. It’s all cloudy after that.

Investors Are Getting Back in the Game

Most of the time, investors look to buy when the market is down and sell when it’s up. This is actually quite useful for the health of the real estate market as a whole, since it makes up the majority of transactions during weak economies, even if it does primarily benefit the already wealthy.

However, that’s not what has happened in this situation. When the pandemic hit, investors were not immediately able to purchase and didn’t have a strong sense of where the market was headed, so investment dropped off dramatically. Prices actually continued to rise throughout the pandemic and even now, meaning there was never a low point for investors to take advantage of. They’re realizing that now, and starting to invest again, expecting prices to continue to go up.

While it’s not a huge cause for concern yet, this is problematic for people intending to buy homes to live in. Investors generally don’t live in the homes they invest in, yet frequently win out during heavy competition due to high cash volume. They’re also not serving the same purpose they do during down markets, since demand is already high. The most problematic type of investor is a flipper, who generates no value or utility at all, merely making a profit off of a home being temporarily vacant.

Photo by Sven Kucinic on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/investors-are-diving-back-into-real-estate/78847/

Current Hot Market May Not Be Sustainable

After lockdowns ended, the real estate market was inundated with prospective buyers who seemed to be itching to take advantage of low interest rates. Interest rates have started to climb back up, yet demand currently shows no signs of slowing, despite continuously rising prices. So what’s the actual reason demand is high, and perhaps more importantly, is it a good reason?

The stimulus packages are a likely culprit. A government stimulus is always going to effect short-term change, but its goal is also long-term change. This is done by a multiplier effect — when people have more money to spend, they spend more, which causes the money to recirculate and improve GDP. However, it’s important to realize what the money is being spent on. Between a quarter and 40% of stimulus money was spent on food, household goods, and debt, and much of the remainder was saved. The stimulus certainly helped people to get through the recession, but it didn’t actually do much to improve the economy as a whole.

From the outside, the real estate market looks like it’s recovering, since it’s becoming more competitive when there isn’t much reason for it to be any longer. In reality, most of the people who can afford to buy right now could already afford to buy before the pandemic, and the rest are perhaps falsely optimistic. The primary factor that can result in long term recovery hasn’t happened yet, and that’s job recovery. The job market isn’t expected to recover until 2025, long after the eviction and foreclosure moratoriums end.

Photo by Maria Lin Kim on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/riding-the-stimulus-wave-when-will-it-end-for-real-estate/77854/

Gen X Jumps on Hot Market

Currently, Millennials are the largest group of homebuyers. The second largest is Gen X, who have a fair number of similarities with Millennials despite being in the workforce much longer. Gen X, like Millennials in 2007, also experienced a major recession in 1980 — and a fair number even lost their homes in 2007 that they had only recently been able to purchase. All in all, Gen X hasn’t had much luck with homebuying. They haven’t lost hope, though — the current hot market appears to be attractive to Gen X prospective homebuyers.

The effect is clearer in some cities than others. The most popular metros for Gen X to move to are in the southeast. This includes several metros in Florida, as well as Memphis, Atlanta, New Orleans, Raleigh, D.C., and Baltimore. By contrast, the least popular metros are primarily not in this region, with the exception of Nashville. The others are San Jose, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Austin, Buffalo, Boston, Minneapolis, Denver, and Salt Lake City.

Photo by N. on Unsplash

More: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/generation-x-is-looking-to-move-to-these-metros/