Tag: mortgage

Local Real Estate Meets the Inflation Fight

In August the South Bay real estate market showed some slowing of what has seemed a continuing slide into negative numbers. Closed transactions showed a partial recovery from the July report of declining sales and declining values, across both the past month and the past year.

August showed positive growth over July in sales volume except for transactions on PV Hill. Median prices compared to July were down except at the Harbor.

Annual statistics were similarly mixed with notable increases in sales at the Beach and Inland areas. Median prices compared to August of last year with modest increases in the Beach Cities and Harbor Area.

Beach Cities Show Strength in August

Sales volume at the Beach seemed surprisingly strong, however a look back in history reveals weaker than normal sales in July of this year and August of last year. The 127 units closed in August was much more in line with expectations, than the 91 sold in July or the 103 sold in August of 2022. Sales in a normal year would come in at about 125-135 units, showing that the Beach Cities are currently close to a normal number of transactions for the month.

Median prices came in negative compared to July, though less than a 1% drop. Last year’s weak sales led to an increase of 2% in median price this August, despite an overall downtrend for the year. Hypothetically, assuming the Federal Reserve policy of 2% growth, median price at the Beach should have been about $1.62M in August. As the market stabilizes from the pandemic, the median has steadily dropped from a high of $1.76M in April to the August actual of $1.67M..

Year to date transactions showed a continuing decline in sales volume (-19%) and median price (-4%) versus 2022. Likewise, sales volume was off 31% compared to the baseline year 2019. Median price is still coming in positive compared to the baseline, up 28% from 2019.

August Harbor Area Sales Climb

Looking at August versus July of this year shows Harbor area sales volume up a healthy 22%. While the month over month numbers are positive, sales are off 8% compared to the same month last year. For perspective, note that in 2019, the last normal year of business, there were 436 homes sold compared to 328 this August. Using that reference point, monthly sales are off by 25%.

Median price for last month was $751K, up 1% from July and up 4% over August of last year. Going back to 2019, the median was $575K, giving the current median price an increase of 32% over our baseline year. At the same time, the high median for this year was in June at $772K, and the lowest was $675K in February.

Year to date, the number of homes sold at the Harbor is down 22% from last year and likewise 22% from 2019.That decline in sales volume is driven by the increased median price which is up 32% compared to the first eight months of 2019. Being generally an entry level market, the Harbor area has shown a drop in sales every month of this year. Likewise, the year over year median price has dropped every month until August.

Palos Verdes Volume and Prices Drop

Sales and median prices were mixed everywhere in South Bay except for the PV Hill. All the statistics for August went down on the Hill. Month over month saw a drop in sales of 2% and decline in median price of 6%. Both are modest changes by comparison to most of the South Bay, but are indicative of the direction of the market in general.

Looking at August of last year compared to August of 2023 shows a dramatic decline of 36% in sales volume. Closed escrows dropped from 77 units last year to 49 this year. Annually, median prices dropped 6%, the largest drop of the four areas.

It’s important to note that in 2019, which being the most recent ‘normal’ year of business, August saw 90 units sold on the Palos Verdes peninsula. Monthly sales volume has dropped off by nearly 50% from the reference year.

Year to date through August shows sales volume down 25% from last year, with median prices falling by 10% over the eight month period. Comparing to 2019 year to date volume is off 21%, while median price comes in at 32% above the 2019 figure.

The disparity created during the pandemic is gradually leveling out as the year goes on. Palos Verdes median prices have fallen six out of eight months this year. The same has been true of the balance of homes sold in the South Bay.

Sales Up, Prices Down for Inland Area

From July to August transactions in the Inland area climbed 15%. Simultaneously, median prices fell by 2% for the month. January kicked off the year with a 16% increase in the median price. February saw that pricing promptly reverse and fall 14%. Since then sales volume has gradually dropped each month and median prices have shifted into a pattern of decline.

Year over year pricing numbers are nearly identical with a 15% jump in median price for January, followed by dropping prices every month since. Similarly, most of 2023 has seen falling sales for homes in the Inland area. So far, August has been the only month with growth in closed transactions.

Year to date statistics compared to 2022 have been much the same with the number of homes sold dropping by 17% and the median price down 2%. In keeping with the rest of the South Bay, comparisons to 2019 reflect sales falling 18% while the median price remains 32% above what it was before the pandemic.

Where Is the Real Estate Market Going?

The number of homes being sold has consistently fallen this year. Likewise, the median price of sold homes has generally been falling since the beginning of the year. The driver behind this has clearly been mortgage interest rates rising from under 3% to over 7% in a matter of months. The Federal Reserve managers have been very upfront about continuing these rates into the foreseeable future.

Most estimates state that about one third of potential buyers can no longer afford to continue with their purchase plans. We see a continued decline in the median price, as sellers find it impossible to sell at the price points reached during the pandemic. When ‘’time on market’ increases without a sale, sellers who ‘must sell’ will gradually lower prices.

Polls are showing those who aren’t compelled to sell are finding it hard to let go of mortgage interest rates below 5%. This reluctance, combined with the sliding median prices, will contribute to more stagnation in the market.

Photo by Carl Clark

What Is An Insurance Binder?

When applying for a mortgage loan, your lender may ask you for an insurance binder. In that event, you’re going to need to know what it is, and how to acquire it. An insurance binder is a temporary proof of insurance. If your loan is being insured, you’ll need to ask the company insuring it to provide an insurance binder before the loan can be approved. This temporary proof of insurance exists because the official proof of insurance probably won’t come until after the deadline for loan approval has passed.

Mortgage loans aren’t the only situation in which you may need an insurance binder. You may also need proof of insurance to buy a car, start a business, or rent property. Some of these may involve loans as well, but even if they don’t, it’s still possible you need to be insured for other reasons. The insurance binder in these situations is exactly the same thing — temporary proof of insurance before the official proof of insurance arrives.

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Market Stalled By High Interest Rates

As of August 2023, interest rates are somewhere around 7%, possibly higher. While this isn’t astronomically high — they have historically been over 10% — it’s too high for current homeowners to want to exchange their homes. This is because 92% of current homeowners with a mortgage have an interest rate below 6%. Almost a quarter even have locked in an interest rate below 3%.

High home prices are actually somewhat helping current homeowners, since the price boost increases their equity. Prices have increased 14% in the past two years, which results in approximately $86,000 in equity over that time period. However, this may not be enough to offset the increased mortgage costs, especially for those with very low interest rates. Assuming a mortgage of $500,000 and a current interest rate of 3%, a new purchase with the same loan amount would result in a $1,200 increase in mortgage payments per month.

Normally, when demand is low like this, supply is high. This isn’t the case right now. Previously, we would have been able to blame declining construction due to increased construction costs. That’s no longer the case, though, as construction has largely, though not completely, recovered. It may even be simple lack of demand that is the final obstacle to a full recovery for construction. To see the real problem, remember which group we’re talking about — current homeowners. These are the same people who would be selling to buy a new home. If they’re not willing to buy in the current mortgage climate, they’re not selling either.

Photo by Adrian N on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/todays-homeowners-are-stuck-on-yesterdays-rates/91951/

Price Declines Forecast Through 2025

Median Home Prices Falling

Year to date through July, the gross revenue for South Bay is a mere 3% above that of 2019. At the same time, sales volume, the number of homes sold, is 23% below the sales of 2019. By most standards, 2019 was the pinnacle of real estate business prior to the turbulent years of the Covid pandemic.

Many sources compare current business to that of the pandemic years, partially because it’s easy and partially because the “numbers look better.“ Undeniably, the statistics do look more favorable, however, this analysis takes comparisons beyond the normal “last month” and “same month last year” to include 2023 versus 2019. This allows our readers to see 2023 in a historical context and to more readily recognize the unfolding recession.

While median prices are still above those of 2019 right now, we project the median prices will also drop below the 2019 level before this recession ends. On a month to month basis, prices are falling approximately half the time. On a year to year basis, 2023 prices have dropped below 2022 medians 82% of the time. Median prices for June and July of 2023 fell below 2022 in all four areas both months. Buyers and sellers should anticipate the bottom of the recession in late 2024, or possibly 2025. Normal growth should return in 2026.

The July report from the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) notes that inflation is expected to continue above the target of 2% through 2025. Accordingly, the Fed efforts to “restrain” the economy (meaning increase interest rates) will continue into 2025. The report indicates that while housing costs are slowing, they continue to increase at inflationary levels, necessitating further reduction.

In the meantime, buyers who are financially able should plan to acquire desirable properties at substantially better prices than will be available after recovery begins. Sellers who anticipate a need to sell before the economic turn-around, should look toward selling sooner rather than later, to minimize the impact of the down-trending market.

Beach Cities Summer Market Fizzles

From June to July the number of homes sold in the Beach Cities fell 27% and those sold for a median price of 2% less. Some of the decline in sales is attributable to fewer homes available, as sellers hold properties off the market in hopes of improving conditions. Even more is a result of buyers who have lost significant purchasing power as mortgage interest rates have rocketed to over 7%.

Compared to July of 2022, the number of homes sold this July dropped 22% with a decline in median price of 4%. This set of statistics is somewhat deceptive in that last July the real estate market was still in the early stages of the downturn. As the current year progresses, year over year figures will demonstrate the slide more clearly.

Comparing the first seven months of 2023 to both 2022 and 2019 (the most recent year of business not impacted by the pandemic) shows the drift of sales and prices. The number of homes sold fell 24% from 2022 (802 homes) to 2023 (607 homes), while it was down 35% from 2019 (930 homes). The Fed dropped mortgage interest rates to essentially zero during the pandemic to keep the general economy afloat, which resulted in rapid price escalation which ultimately made purchasing a home unaffordable for about 25% of potential buyers. Then to control the resulting inflation, the interest rates jumped up around the 7% mark, which further slowed the real estate market by “pricing out” another 10-15% of buyers. With fewer buyers and stagnating prices, sellers are reacting by pulling property off the market and delaying planned sales.

Median prices fell 4% from 2022 and are still 28% above the median price of Beach Cities homes in 2019.

Harbor Area Sales Volume Plummets

Sales volume in the Harbor area has held up better than the Beach, possibly because median price has taken a greater hit. On a monthly basis, 24% fewer homes were sold (269 in July versus 353 in June). Comparing July of 2023 to July of last year, only 18% fewer closed escrow (269 versus 329).

Generally being an entry level market, the Harbor area tends to react faster to changes in market condition. More upscale neighborhoods frequently “stick to the price” for a longer period of time when markets are declining. Month to month median price dropped 4% in July to $565K. For July of 2022 versus July of 2023, the median fell 5%, from $780K to $740K.

Year to date through July, sales volume was off 24% from last year. Median price was down 4% when compared to the same period in 2022. Looking back to 2019, the number of homes sold during the first seven months of 2023 dropped by 21%. Median price for the same time frame shows up at 32% higher than 2019. Given the median price dropped 4% over the past month (from $772K to $740K), it’s reasonable to project the Harbor area median will end the year near $600K, as it was in 2019.

PV Hill Shows Volatility

Month over month, the number of homes sold on the PV Hill fell from 79 units in June to 50 in July, a decline of 37%. At the same time, the median price dropped 10%, ending the month at $1.8M. This despite a high sale of $12.5M, up from the high of $10M in June.

Year to year, July volume dropped 6% from 53 units in 2022, while median price plummeted 18%, from last year’s $2.2M. Palos Verdes is a unique community with large homes on large lots, many of them highly custom. Combined with the small overall number of homes, these properties truly need to be assessed on an individual basis for realistic projections.

Comparing cumulative sales data for January through July, volume is down 23% and median price is down 17% versus last year. Going back to the stable year of 2019, the number of sales is down 16% while the median is up 34%.

Interestingly, if the Fed’s annual 2% inflation target is added to the years between 2019 and 2023, the median on the Hill would be $1.5M today, instead of $1.8M. Under those circumstances, it would only take a decline of $300K to erase all gain from the past three years. Not a comforting thought for anyone who purchased recently.

Inland Cities Most Stable

The Inland area typifies a classic “middle of the road” performance in the real estate world. Generally the homes are everyday family properties, the sales trends are at the middle of the current South Bay market, and everything seems to happen with minimum drama. So there is little surprise at the minimalist 19% decline in monthly sales volume, the lowest of the South Bay. Likewise there is no shock the Inland cities came in with the lowest monthly price decline, a mere 1% below June.

Similarly, the annual sales volume showed July of 2023 only 14% below last July and the median price just 1% below the same month a year ago.

Year to date for the first seven months of 2023 compared to 2022 looks much the same. The number of homes sold dropped by 22%, 799 in 2023 versus 1021 last year. The median price fell 2% to $868K from $883K. Looking back to the 2019 sales volume for the same time period, the Inland area is off by 18% for the current year. Much like the rest of the South Bay, the median price in 2023 ($868K) remains above that of 2019 ($662K) by 31%.

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Major Finance Changes Could Disrupt Closing Process

You might think that once you’ve qualified for a mortgage loan, it’s locked in and you’re free to take on debt without affecting the home purchase. This is not the case. Lenders continue to look at your debt until the purchase is finalized, and taking on additional debt could increase your interest rate, or potentially even disqualify you from the loan.

You certainly don’t want to take additional loans during this process. This includes personal loans and lines of credit. Both can affect your credit score as well as your debt-to-income ratio, both of which lenders look at. Large purchases are also not advisable, especially if they’re paid in installments. This includes vehicles such as cars or boats, and may also include furniture or large appliances. Lenders also look for consistent employment. Even if you’re getting a pay increase by switching jobs, you probably shouldn’t do it just before finalizing a mortgage. At best, it delays the process, and getting paperwork in on time is very important, even if you’ve already locked in the rate.

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More: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-closing-house-131044960.html

Commonly Believed Myths About Mortgages

There are many barriers to homeownership. Many of them are economic, and unfortunately no small percentage of them are the result of discrimination. But one very frequent barrier to homeownership is lack of understanding of the process. Plenty of people who can afford to buy don’t think they can, or don’t think they should, because of misconceptions about mortgages.

One myth that, despite repeated attempts by experts to clarify it, continues to plague prospective homebuyers is the 20% down payment requirement. There is actually no such requirement — it’s a suggestion. It’s a rather economically sound suggestion in many cases, but that doesn’t mean you can’t buy with a lower down payment. The reason it’s so heavily suggested is that not only does a higher down payment translate to reduced loan value and potentially a lower interest rate, but it also avoids private mortgage insurance (PMI). PMI is an additional cost that you won’t incur if your down payment is at least 20%. So a minimum of 20% down payment significantly reduces your overall monthly cost. These high monthly costs are perhaps what’s leading people to believe that renting is cheaper than buying. It can be, in the short term, but almost never is in the long term. But the reason it can be cheaper in the short term is not high mortgage costs; it’s actually the upfront cost of buying a home. Monthly rents usually go up at the same time house prices do, and are often fairly close to monthly mortgage payments. Moreover, buying a home builds equity and allows for resale, while there is no return on investment for renting. Another misperception that leads people to think they can’t get a mortgage is credit requirements. Lenders do look at your credit, but it doesn’t need to be perfect. Most people do not have perfect credit. As long as the lender believes you could reasonably pay back the mortgage, you can qualify with a credit rating as low as 500, though you may only qualify for mortgages with higher interest rates.

The misunderstanding doesn’t stop with whether or not one can qualify for a mortgage. Even once a prospective homebuyer gets to the stage of choosing a mortgage option, there is some confusion about which mortgage options are the best for you. Many people categorically refuse adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and always pick the loan with the lowest interest rate. Neither of these are necessarily the right idea. Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) definitely offer stability and can be excellent for people who plan to keep their new home for a while or who are uncertain about their future. On the other hand, ARMs typically have a lower initial interest rate than FRMs. This means they can be more financially sound for people who don’t plan to own the home very long, or who are better positioned to take risks. A low interest rate is obviously a good thing, but it’s far from the only cost associated with getting a loan. If you need to pay PMI, that’s also a factor. But even if you don’t, there will always be closing costs, property taxes, homeowner’s insurance, and maintenance costs. Some of these depend on the price of the home, but some depend on the lender, so be sure to get a breakdown of all the costs before committing to a loan.

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More: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mortgage-myths-busted-what-to-know-now/

2023 Home Sales Volume Below Pre-Covid Levels!

The number of homes sold in the Los Angeles South Bay during the first six months of 2023 is the lowest sales volume for a first half in the past five years. Fewer homes have been sold since the new year than sold during the same period of the worst year of the pandemic.

The first half of 2023 has ended with 24% fewer sales than the same period in 2022, which was itself down 15% from 2021. The peak of the market was early 2021, when interest rates were among the lowest in history, exploding the number of potential buyers. The lowest sales volume was during 2020 when 3311 homes were sold, which was still greater than the 3221 sold the beginning of this year.

Median Price Begins Downturn

Coming right on the heels of the sales volume collapse is a drop in the median price. Prices today are down from where they were in 2022, which was the peak of the recent market. The chart below reflects the median price for the first and second quarters of the past five years. Typically, the first quarter is the slowest, with the number of sales increasing through the second quarter and then slowing again for the third and fourth quarters. Here the growth from Q1 to Q2 shows and we can see the change from year to year.

As always, bear in mind that the Palos Verdes Hill offers a comparatively small sample size, so a couple of significant sales can shift the plot lines dramatically on a chart. The chart above shows one such anomaly where PV the median price actually declines in the second quarter.

Looking across the years from 2019 all four areas show the same upward movement in median price until the second quarter of 2022. Then, comparing it to the second quarter of 2023, we can see the trend shifting downward. For example, the Beach Cities median fell from $1.82M in the second quarter of 2022 to $1.72M in the second quarter of 2023. The weakness in median prices is driven by increasingly steeper mortgage interest rates. Barring a change in market dynamics, anticipate this line turning into a steeper downslope for residential prices starting in winter of 2023/24.

When Is the Bottom?

The market is clearly taking a downward turn. Sales volume is off, median prices are turning down. Sellers are not putting properties on the market. Buyers aren’t buying. The few forecasters willing to make a guess this early are saying real estate won’t come back until 2025, possibly 2026. For those who are “waiting for the bottom of the market,” remember that by the time you read it in the headlines—you’re too late—the bottom is gone.

Beach Cities Sales Dropping Fast

Median prices at the Beach have fallen 5% from last June, coming in this year at $1.72M, an even $100,000 below June of 2022. Year to year sales for June are down 7% from last year, at 124 units compared to 133 in June of 2022.

Month over month statistics have been highly volatile since the beginnning of 2023. Interest rates and prices have changed erratically, making short term forecasts nearly impossible. Month to month sales volume has bounced in a range from 2% to 45%. In just six months, monthly median prices in the Beach Cities have ranged between -18% and 26%.

Year to date sales volume at the Beach is down 25% from last year and is off a full 35% from 2019.

The year to date median is down 3% compared to 2022, though it is still 32% above the median in 2019.

Despite market conditions, homes in the Beach Cities remain highly desirable. For June, 78% of sales transactions closed within 30 days of listing and sold for 2.61 % above asking price. Beach homes also offer a great deal of diversity. June sales showed a 19 million dollar range between the low sale at just over $500K and the high sale at $19.5M.

Harbor Area Home Sales and Prices Down

Year to year-same month sales in the Harbor area have been negative since the first of the year. Prices were still holding up in June of last year, but sales volume had been dropping through all of May and June. As a result, the number of homes sold dropped a mere 1% coming into June of 2023. That looks good until compared with the year to date decline of 24%.

Market conditions in the Harbor last year gradually changed from joy for rock bottom interest rates at the beginning of the year to caution as sales tapered off and sales figures stated taking a hit. Median prices for June of the current year have fallen 7% from the June 2022 median of $830K.

Until now, the Harbor area has shown mixed results in the month over month statistics. For June compared to May sales volume was up by 5% (353 versus 337), while median price was up 7% ($772K versus $720K). Like the Beach Cities, the Harbor Area is following a more normal upward swing from the winter doldrums into the spring selling season.

That upward swing is not expected to go very high or last very long. At 1710 homes sold, year to date sales volume from January through June is down 24% versus 2259 sold in 2022. Sales volume is likewise down 17% from 2071 during the same six months in 2019. The variance in monthly sales is expected to drop into the single digits starting in July.

Median prices are down 4% compared to 2022 though still up 33% versus 2019. (Note: Using The Federal Reserve’s “target inflation rate”of 2% annually would have put the Harbor area median price increase at a little over 8%. That implies an “excess growth” of about 25% in median price during the pandemic buying splurge. Much of that difference, if not all of it, is expected to disappear over the next 18 to 24 months.)

June sales detail shows 77% of sales closing escrow within 30 days. Buyers were still bidding up, with the sales price exceeding the list price by 2.61%. The highest sale recorded in June for the Harbor was $4.25M; while the lowest was $527.5K.

PV Peninsula Volume and Prices Mixed

Palos Verdes, contrasting May versus June of 2023 shows a 22% increase in the number of homes sold for a monthly total of 79. At the same time, the median price dropped by 13%, falling to $2M even. Expectations for month over month statistics include fewer sales and more aggressive price reductions as 2023 wears on. The summer and fall months are projected to have weaker home sales, both in volume and pricing, as interest rates increase and buyers and sellers who “must move” run out of options.

Year over year same month sales, showed a volume growth of 1% (one sale), accompanied by a 14% drop in median price from $2.3M. That 1% increase is the first time in 2023 that any of the areas has shown positive growth in the number of homes sold. As such, and knowing that the PV Hill is considerably smaller that the other areas we measure, readers are cautioned about the wide swings in PV statistics.

Sales volume for the first six months of 2023 is down 26% compared to 2022 (326 homes in 2023 versus 438 in 2022. Similarly, sales are down 9% from 2019 when sales of 358 homes were recorded. Median prices of $1.8M for the same period are down 13% from 2022 prices of $2.1M and up 36% from $1.3M in 2019.

Market time has remained good, with 75% of sales closing withing 30 days. Sellers have enjoyed selling prices 2.3% higher than asking prices, a trend expected to disappear before the end of summer. Once again showing the range of homes available in the South Bay, the high sale in PV was $10M while the low was $610K.

Inland Area Makes Strong Showing

Sales volume of 161 homes in the Inland Area for June was up 33% over sales of 121 in May. With 33% more activity came a 1% reduction in median price, which fell to $875K after reaching $880K in May.

Comparing June of this year to June of last year showed a volume decrease of 3% from 166 in 2022. Likewise, this June showed a median price decrease of 3% from last year’s $905K.

Year to date volume for the first six months was down 68%, for 669 units sold, versus 869 in 2022. Going back to 2019, the most recent “normal business year,” sales volume was down 21% from 799 sold in 2019.

Median price of Inland area homes for the same six month period showed at $863K, down 3% from $887K in 2022; and up 32% from $652K in 2019.
Days on market remained under 30 for 82% of the Inland area homes sold in June. Buyers offered 2.6% above asking price. The high market sale was $2.2M while the low was $390K.

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Getting A Loan With Irregular Income

Freelance workers and some self-employed people typically don’t have a consistent income. This leads some to doubt whether or not they qualify for a mortgage loan. Lenders will never blanket deny everyone with an irregular income, but it certainly could be more difficult to get a loan. As long as your credit history and debt-to-income ratio are good, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue — you simply may need more documentation to prove that you’re good for it. While lenders will always look at recent income, in the case of irregular income, they may also consider whether or not you’re likely to have clients in the near future based on your occupation.

If you get rejected outright, it’s likely that now isn’t a good time for you to buy in the first place. As long as you aren’t getting rejected, the worst case scenario is a non-qualified mortgage loan, or non-QM loan. Non-QM loans don’t meet the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau guidelines that are designed to ensure borrowers are able to repay their loans, and not all lenders offer them. They may be used for self-employed people, people with irregular income, people with low credit scores, or non-traditional types of properties. Because non-QM loans are riskier for the lender, they do have a drawback for the borrower. They typically have higher interest rates, larger down payment minimums, and/or shorter repayment periods.

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No More Federal Rate Hikes Expected

The high mortgage interest rates we’ve been experiencing have been the result of benchmark rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The benchmark rate isn’t directly tied to mortgage interest rates, but the benchmark rate does have a strong effect on interest rates. Now, though, no more rate hikes are expected, which should cause interest rates to level off, and then start to decline.

This levelling off followed by a decline is exactly what the Fed was aiming for with the rate hikes. It’s impossible for mortgage rates to drop without the real estate market, and in turn the economy as a whole, taking a hit. By raising rates above what they should be during a period of high prices, what the Fed has done is soften the blow by allowing the decline to be more gradual. Of course, this comes at the cost of significantly decreased affordability for the period of the rate hikes. Once interest rates fall below 6%, which should happen before the end of the year, the market should pick back up again. However, the effect may not be noticed until next year, as the end of the year is not generally a time of heavy market activity.

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More: https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/good-news-for-homebuyers-mortgage-rates-are-poised-to-fall/

Tax Implications Of Assisting Your Kids With Mortgage Payment

Some parents want to help their kids any way they can, including by helping them pay their mortgage. Or perhaps they’ve suggested that their inheritance be used for this purpose. Others want to instill the importance of financial responsibility or independence. Some simply can’t afford to help. But if you do want to help your kids with their mortgage, there is some important tax information you should be aware of.

One very common way for parents to assist their kids is with a financial gift. This isn’t just as simple as giving them money. Financial gifts above a certain amount per year do need to be recorded, and may be subject to a gift tax. In 2023, this amount is anything over $17,000 annually, but this value could change each year. Income tax could come into play if instead of gifting your child money, you provide them with a loan. The interest you receive on the loan must be reported as income and may be subject to income tax, and may also be deductible for your child. Capital gains tax is relevant if your kid inherits a property from you or you gift them a property. In the case of a gift, when your kid sells the home, they will need to pay capital gains tax if the home appreciated in value. In the case of inheritance, the capital gains tax amount is based only on the amount of appreciation and not the total value of the home.

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How To Eliminate Existing Private Mortgage Insurance

Private Mortgage Insurance, or PMI, is a type of insurance that many lenders require for any mortgage with a down payment less than 20%. This is the main reason a minimum 20% down payment is so widely suggested. But if you aren’t able to put 20% down and are forced to take PMI, you needn’t worry too much. It’s also possible to get rid of existing PMI in certain circumstances.

One method that doesn’t require any specific action on your part is to simply wait until automatic termination of PMI, which occurs when you reach 22% equity and are current on your mortgage payments. However, it’s possible to request to terminate it earlier as long as your equity is at least 20%. There are a few ways to do this faster. The simplest option is to pay more than the required mortgage payment. This allows you to reach 20% equity faster while also reducing your PMI costs along the way. Another way you could potentially reduce payments to speed up equity gain is to refinance to a lower interest rate. Depending on your circumstances, this may or may not increase your total mortgage cost excluding PMI, but could eliminate PMI faster. There’s one more possibility: Reappraising your home. It’s possible that your home has accrued enough value that determining the new value of your home reveals that you actually do have at least 20% equity. If you do, you can request to remove PMI.

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High Interest Rates May Be Contributing To Low Inventory

With how much discussions of real estate tend to pit buyers and sellers against each other, it’s easy to forget they’re often actually the same people. Many sellers are also buyers, either planning to buy to replace the home they’re selling, or already bought another home. This isn’t always the case, of course — it’s entirely possible that someone could have never purchased anything, inherited two homes, and sold one of them. But this isn’t most sellers. What this means is that market conditions that are generally considered to primarily affect buyers will also affect sellers.

Such as right now, where it appears that the high interest rates that are holding buyers back are also making sellers hesitate. The majority of homeowners now have an interest rate lower than the current rates, especially if they took advantage of ultra-low rates such as the rates during the pandemic. If these homeowners were to sell and buy a new home, they would be losing their low interest rate and gaining a high interest rate. For 82% of them, that may not be worth it. Over half of those considering selling right now are deciding to wait until interest rates drop.

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More: https://news.move.com/2023-04-17-Realtor-com-R-Survey-82-of-Those-Looking-to-Buy-and-Sell-a-Home-Feel-Locked-In-by-Low-Mortgage-Rate

When You Should And Shouldn’t Put 20% Down

Having a 20% down payment used to be a requirement for nearly all loans. That hasn’t been the case for quite some time, but it’s still touted as the conventional wisdom. In many cases, that may be true, but it’s not always the best idea. There are both advantages and disadvantages to putting 20% down.

If you have the money available already, it’s quite likely that the benefits heavily outweigh the drawbacks. Even though 20% down is no longer a requirement to get a loan, it is still a requirement to avoid mortgage insurance fees. Putting 19% down, for example, simply makes no financial sense at all, regardless of your financial situation. It’s also good to put down as much as you feasibly can in order to reduce the loan amount, thereby reducing your payments. The 20% mark is important if you can reach it.

If you still need to save money in order to achieve a 20% down payment, you’re going to need to crunch some numbers and also make some predictions in order to arrive at the correct solution. If you’re close to being able to put down 20%, it may be in your best interest to continue saving up to avoid mortgage insurance fees. But if you aren’t close, it may be best to simply forget about it. Even if you are definitely able to save money, by the time you get to the point that you can put down whatever 20% is now, home prices are likely to be significantly higher. In that case, it may be better not to wait. You also need to consider other costs and where you’re getting the money. If you need to take out a loan or draw on investments to reach 20%, this is probably not a good investment, unless it’s the only way you can viably make a home purchase.

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Cash-Out Refinancing A Solid Option For Home Renovations

If you’re planning to renovate your home, whether you intend to continue to live in it or to sell it at a profit, you need to think about how to pay for the renovations. Of course, it’s possible you have the cash on hand, which is great. But if not, there are a few financing options you can look into. It’s common to get a home equity line of credit (HELOC) or simply take out an additional loan. However, another option you may not be aware of is cash-out refinancing. It works by refinancing to a loan amount higher than your current loan balance, and taking the difference as cash.

The most important thing to consider when determining if you should get a cash-out refinance loan is the interest rate. It very likely won’t be the same as your current interest rate. If the rate is higher or even the same, it’s probably financially negative in the long run unless you can increase your home’s value significantly with the renovations. That’s why it’s a good option specifically for renovations. On the other hand, it’s entirely possible the rate is lower, or simply lower than traditional loans or HELOCs, in which case it’s a good financing option for any purpose. However, you may not want to use cash-out refinancing for large projects. Since you don’t receive the entire value of the new loan, but only the difference between the new loan balance and old loan balance, you’d need to increase the principal significantly to finance large projects. This could increase your interest payments by quite a bit even if the rate is lower.

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You May Be Eligible For California’s New Dream For All Shared Appreciation Loan

The California Housing Finance Agency (CalHFA) recently launched the Dream For All Shared Appreciation Loan, a secondary loan to be used in conjunction with CalHFA’s Dream For All Conventional first mortgage. This secondary loan carries its own set of requirements, which may or may not differ from the initial Dream For All Conventional first mortgage. The requirements of the secondary loan are provided here, but you should consult with CalHFA to be sure that you meet all requirements. The requirements are provided for two categories, both for the borrower and for the property.

The borrower must be a first-time homebuyer, which CalHFA defines as not having owned and occupied a home in the past three years. The borrower must also occupy the property as their primary residence and meet income limits for the program. In addition, the borrower, or at least one of the co-borrowers if there is more than one, for any CalHFA first-time homebuyer loan must take a CalHFA approved Homebuyer Education and Counseling course. This course does have a fee, which varies by method and agency, and can be done online or in-person. The Dream For All program also has its own additional course. Fortunately, this course is free, but it is only accessible online.

The property requirements are simple for single-family residences and manufactured homes, which are both allowed, but may be more complex for other types of properties. Condominiums must also meet the guidelines for whichever initial mortgage you choose. Guest houses, granny units, and in-law quarters may be eligible, but would not be eligible in addition to the main residence, since the property must be only one unit.

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More information about the Dream For All Shared Appreciation Loan here: https://www.calhfa.ca.gov/dream/index.htm

What Is A Wrap-Around Mortgage?

Wrap-around mortgages are not very common, but it’s still a good concept to know in case you find it difficult to get a more traditional mortgage loan. A sale with a wrap-around mortgage has two important components distinguishing it from a regular sale: First, the seller retains the current mortgage on the property being sold. This differs from standard sales in which the seller normally pays off the remaining mortgage as part of the sale process. Second, the loan is not issued by a lender but rather by the seller. In this way, the seller is most likely planning to pay their mortgage using the money gained from payments the buyer makes to the seller on their new mortgage.

Wrap-around mortgages have both advantages and disadvantages. The primary reason to get a wrap-around mortgage is that they don’t have any standardized qualification requirements. This mostly benefits the buyer, but can also be useful to the seller if they’re having difficulty finding buyers. The primary drawback is that the buyer and seller must write up the contract themselves, since there is no lender involved. That means both parties need to be legally and financially savvy. It’s also impossible to wrap around a mortgage that doesn’t exist, so the seller needs to have a mortgage. There are also cons specific to the seller and buyer. The seller in this instance incurs the same financial risk that a lender would normally. The buyer is very likely paying a higher interest rate, since the arrangement is not worth the risk to the seller unless they are profiting.

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Honesty Is The Best Policy On Mortgage Applications

Some of the questions on a mortgage application may seem unnecessary, but they’re all there for a reason. Certain omissions can lower your interest rate and make your offer seem more appealing. But even if you haven’t done anything wrong — especially if you haven’t done anything wrong — you should always disclose all relevant information.

Money changes hands all the time, and the transfer doesn’t always leave a paper trail. But lenders will still find it odd for you to suddenly have additional money or fewer debts. It’s perfectly legal to ask a friend or family member for some cash to help you buy a home or pay off a debt. That money came from somewhere, though, and if you don’t list it, your lender could assume you are hiding something and deny your application.

A common lie that seems more innocuous but can actually have even more drastic consequences is stating that you plan to live in the home when you actually don’t. People do this because interest rate is lower on loans for primary residences, and they figure it’s fine because of course they can always change their mind. However, this is actually a crime. It’s considered a form of mortgage fraud.

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Recession Drives Price Reductions

Median Price Tumbles

Last year ended with sales volume off, median prices coming down and revenue dropping fast. January showed little change. February of this year shows sales volume up from January by as much as 50%. The reason why is obvious–the median price is simultaneously dropping by percentages as high as 18%.

Comparing February activity to February a year ago shows significant declines in both sales volume and in median price. At that point in 2022 the market was just beginning to dip a toe in the recessionary waters. Now we’re wading into it.

The first week of March Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress, “…the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.” Powell’s pointed remark clearly tells us the most recent pause in interest rate hikes is momentary. The lowest local mortgage rates we could find at the time was 6.75%. As such, we anticipate rates in excess of 7% by summer.

February Sales Volume Climbs

About the second week of January mortgage lenders began loosening the interest rates in anticipation of a relaxation by the Federal Reserve. For the most part, local rates stayed below 6% until late in February when the Fed began dropping hints that inflation was still raging.

After a “soft” January, sellers in the market were dropping prices and buyers responding positively by making offers. Now that mortgage rates have resumed climbing, sellers will have to drop prices some more to remain attractive to buyers.

With only two months behind us this year, there are indications lenders will “see-saw” the rates throughout the year. Already this year we have seen retail mortgage rates moving up and moving down without influence from the Fed. It seems to be an effort to induce buyers to accept high interest rates based on the theory they were higher last week so this temporary reduction is a good deal.

Revenue Climbs From January Depth

On a month-to-month basis, revenue across the South Bay is up 21% from January of this year. Don’t get excited—it’s only one month. January was one of the lowest performing months we’ve seen recently.

On a year-over-year basis, revenue is down 34% from last February! January was 38% lower than January of 2022. Year to date through February, revenue in the South Bay is down 36% and is expected to continue falling.

One of the more important statistics to note is how 2023 activity compares to 2019, which was the most recent “normal” year of real estate business. Across the South Bay real estate revenue for the first two months of 2023 is 7% below the same period in 2019. Restated, the South Bay has already lost over four years of gain in real estate revenue.

Median Price Slips, Volume Rises

More units of housing were sold in February than January, and the median price was lower in February. The Beach Cities saw a drop of 18% from January while the PV Hill held the decline to 3%. The Harbor area fell 4% and the Inland area dropped 14%.

Comparing February of this year to February of 2022 brought a harsher focus to the picture. All four areas have fallen from last years median price. The Beach is down 17%, the Harbor down 11%, the Hill is off 29% and the Inland cities down just 3%.

2023 Versus 2019 Shows a Sinking Market

The summary numbers comparing the first two months of 2023 to the most recent “normal” year of 2019 are not encouraging. Overall, sales revenue has fallen 7% below revenue figures for the same period in 2019. The Harbor area has fared the best, showing a 9% increase in revenue over January and February activity in 2019. Of course, that was four years ago and classic inflation would give that type of gain. It’s clear the “inflation on steriods” we’ve been experiencing is gone from the real estate industry.

The Beach cities provide an excellent indication of where the real estate economy is going. The first two months of revenue for 2023 is down 32%. Palos Verdes is down 2%, while the Inland area is up be a mere 1%. After four years of pandemic, recession, inflation and Federal Reserve manipulation the real estate market is tanking.

Disclosures:

The areas are:
Beach: includes the cities of El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and Redondo Beach;
PV Hill: includes the cities of Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills and Rolling Hills Estates;
Harbor: includes the cities of San Pedro, Long Beach, Wilmington, Harbor City and Carson;
Inland: includes the cities of Torrance, Gardena and Lomita.

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What To Ask Lenders When Negotiating Mortgages

There’s plenty of advice out there telling you that negotiating your mortgage is important and that you should get multiple opinions. However, unless you know what you’re looking for, you’re probably not actually getting the best deal. On the surface, it may look like the lowest rate you can find, but it likely isn’t. You’ll often need to dig and ask the right questions.

So what are the right questions? Ultimately, you want to know the exact breakdown of the estimate. As you probably already know, interest rates aren’t based on just one factor. You may not realize that some of these factors are actually negotiable, or you may even have more information about it than the lender and be able to correct the estimate. Ask if the estimate includes any discount points. Discount points are an up-front payment that lenders aren’t going to tell you actually lowers your interest rate, rather than being just a standard fee. Discount points are negotiable, but lenders won’t mention that unless you bring it up. The estimate that a lender provides may or may not also include closing costs. Discount points and lender fees are part of closing costs, but a significant portion of them are not actually under the lender’s control. Lenders frequently underestimate escrow fees, so when it comes time for you to pay the closing costs, your fee may be higher than the estimate even if the rate is locked. Make sure to only compare costs the lender can control.

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More: https://www.cnbc.com/select/negotiating-mortgage-rates/

ITIN Loans: An Option For Non-Citizens

Those who are not citizens or possibly not even residents of the US may have trouble qualifying for mortgage loans. Fortunately, there is an option available, so you don’t necessarily have to be stuck renting if you have just recently moved to the US. ITIN stands for Individual Taxpayer Identification Number, and is a number that the IRS can assign to taxpayers who cannot get a Social Security Number. If you apply and are assigned an ITIN, this can help you qualify to get an ITIN loan.

While you don’t need to be a resident or citizen, there are still some requirements for ITIN loans. You do need to provide tax returns and may have to fill out Form W-7. It’s possible that you will also be asked for additional forms of identification, such as a driver’s license or birth certificate. As with any mortgage loan, you will be expected to provide proof of income, assets, or employment.

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