Home Sales Plummet 40%

April of 2023 ended with a 40% drop in the number of homes sold across the South Bay compared to 2022. The median price was down 20% from last year in Palos Verdes and is up by a mere 1% at the Beach. Year to year median prices across the South Bay are down approximately 5%. Cumulative sales revenue for the first four months across the South Bay has dropped 39% from 2022 numbers.

Year to date, 2023 has been one of the slowest markets we’ve seen in recent years. Sales are off by 43% in the Beach Cities and are down by 22% across the South Bay compared to last year. Median prices escalated dramatically in 2021-2022, and are still above those of 2019 by 30-35%. However, the median has fallen in all four areas since late last year. We anticipate the median price continuing to drop until interest rates seriously decline again.

Business in the years between 2019 and 2023 was seriously impacted by the pandemic, and the massive government funds released to counter the effect of the pandemic. Looking back at 2019 and comparing it to 2023 offers a perspective on where the market is and where we can expect it to go during the balance of the year. Today we see a huge decline in the number of homes being sold. That has yet to translate into a significant decline in median prices, although 75% of year over year sales show prices falling.

At the same time the Average Days On Market (ADOM) has increased from about 7 days during the sales boom of 2021-2022 to about 30 days now. That’s a four-fold increase in the amount of time it takes to sell a home. For a seller who needs to move, that will feel like an eternity. It’s that sense of urgency that drives prices down and ultimately results in a shift of the market.

At the Beach “Sticky Prices”

Sellers in the Beach Cities had a good month in April—at least compared to March of this year. Compared to April of last year, the picture is far worse.

The number of homes sold in April was up 8% compared to March. That sounds positive, until the realization that sales volume was down 36% compared to April of 2022. At the same time, the median price was up 2% versus last month, and down 2% compared to the same month last year.

There’s a lot of talk among brokers these days about “sticky prices.” Recent sales at the Beach offer a good example of what that means. The statistics show that sales are down 36% from last year, however prices have only dropped 2%. Sales are falling because the number of viable buyers is down.

Interest rate increases have pushed the most tenuous group of prospective buyers out of the market. At the same time, sellers are still revelling in the boost to median prices that came with record low interest rates during the pandemic. Beach area sellers have yet to adjust to the reality of a re-trenching economy. That adjustment is “sticky prices.”

Harbor Sales and Prices Off

The neighborhood can affect how long it takes the median price to respond to changes in the economic environment. While sales volume and pricing has remained strong at the Beach, sellers and buyers in entry level communities are impacted more immediately by shifts in the economy.

Thus we see the give and take of the market bring median prices into a stable range early in the year in the Harbor area. The red line in the median price chart below shows four months of reasonably steady prices. While month over month prices have shown only a 1% drop, the monthly sales volume has taken a 12% dive from March, as shown in the Sales Volume chart, above.

The monthly decline in sales was multiplied in the year over year statistics. April sales volume was down 39% from April of 2022. For the same period, the declining sales volume was coupled with a 9% drop in median price. So the entry level communities demonstrate a much quicker and deeper response to changes in the financial picture.

Part of that response is the time on market, which has risen from 15 ADOM in mid-2021 to 26 ADOM in April of this year. The increasing time required to sell homes contributes to the number of homes available on the market. Both factors contribute to falling purchase prices.

Palos Verdes In Extremes

Through 2021 and 2022 home prices on the Palos Verdes peninsula benefitted from the Covid pandemic more than any area in the South Bay. In the median price by quarter chart, shown below, the yellow line is seen jumping up and away from the blue line of the Beach Cities. Unfortunately for home owners on the Hill, that price boost has already pulled back into line with prices of Beach area homes.

Comparing the first four months of the 2023 to 2022 median prices on the Hill have dropped 16%. It’s a steep decline in view of decreases at 3% and 6% in the Inland and Harbor areas, respectively. Even more so when looking at the 1% increase at the Beach.

The statistics look much better when comparing Palos Verdes sales from 2023 to statistics from 2019, the last “normal” year of real estate business. Sales volume on the Hill is down a modest 13%–modest by comparison to the Beach, which is down 43%. In contrast, median prices in 2023, compared to 2019, are still showing positive growth of 30%.

So, if one were to take the Federal Reserve System position that 2% annual growth is a desirable target, where would prices be today? The median price in Palos Verdes in May of 2019 was $1.5M. Jump forward to 2023 and that becomes about $1.6M. The median on the Hill last month was $1.9M, which suggests further price reductions.

Inland – The Steepest Fall

From an investment perspective, homes in the Inland area of the Los Angeles South Bay are “bread and butter.” These are the homes, much like those in the Harbor area, which reliably increase in value over long periods of time at a slow and steady rate. Most importantly, they house the bulk of our community.

In the short term, Inland home sales volume is down 25% from March to April of this year. Median prices are up 2% for the same period. This is the steepest fall in number of homes sold in the four areas charted.

Year over year, sales volume is off even more at 43% below April of 2022, and prices similarly down by 4%. We expect a seasonal boost to sales for the second quarter, when families most frequently schedule moves. Beyond that, most predictions are for continued softening in the real estate market as the Fed struggles with inflation. (The April Consumer Price Index, [CPI-U] for Los Angeles metro was 5.2% for Housing.)

Photo by Bradley Pisney on Unsplash

The Short & the Long of South Bay Home Sales

A glance at the table below confirms that year over year statistics are overwhelming the monthly numbers. Buyers were out there buying in March, and they were buying more than they did in February, which was up from January. That’s to be expected. We report actual numbers, as opposed to “seasonally adjusted,” so coming from the depths of winter into spring always increases real estate activity.

Because of that simple fact, the year over year statistics are far more important as an indicator of where the market may be headed. The big increase in March sales doesn’t offset how far down sales volume has gone since last year. Nor does it hint at the level to which median prices are taking a hit.

Compared to last year, sales volume is off by a third in nearly all areas of the Los Angeles South Bay. Median prices haven’t dropped nearly as large a percentage, but we can clearly see the direction. The Federal Reserve System (Fed) comment in the April “Beige Book” said it all: “Residential and commercial real estate activity fell, and lending activity declined substantially.”

Beach Cities Median Still Rising

As the over-all real estate market begins a dive into the depths of a Fed-induced recession, we find the Beach Cities as the only remaining local market with year-over-year positive median price growth. It’s not much. A mere 1% growth over March of 2022 is hardly an investment recommendation, especially with inflation running around 6%. And, the rest of the Los Angeles South Bay is already negative compared to this time last year.

This is the second time in 2023 buyers at the Beach have nudged the median price up while the rest of the residential market fell. January showed a 6% increase which collapsed February in a 17% free fall. February’s dismal numbers contributed to what looks like a good March in the month to month measurement.

Staying positive in March appears to be predominately the result of a single sale in Hermosa Beach. At nearly 5000 sq ft, with stunning ocean views, the property was bid up from its $5M dollar list price to just over $6M, closing with a cash offer in only 12 days. Without that transaction the Beach Cities marketplace would have stood at 0% growth.

The big story at the Beach is the sales volume versus the most recent “normal” year of real estate business. The chart below shows the number of homes sold in each of the South Bay areas, with seasonal shifts.

Notice that 2019, the last normal year, begins low, with few sales in the winter months. Sales peak in quarter three, in the heat of summer, then decline back down to about where they started.

Compare that to what happened in 2022, when everything seemed to head down.

Only 83 homes were sold in March of this year, and only 181 homes sold across the first quarter of 2023. In 2019 the area averaged monthly sales of over 100 units; approximately 425 homes per quarter. That amounts to a 43% decline in the number of sales compared to pre-pandemic levels.

As this is written there are 152 homes available in the Beach Cities with an average of 62 days on market. Both, the level of inventory and the time on market are increasing daily. Those factors, especially working together, will cause price decreases. With a constantly increasing mortgage interest rate, there’s little doubt the valuation gains of the pandemic era will not hold up to the recession in the world of real estate.

Harbor Area Sales Volume Plummets 39%

The Sales Volume, by Quarter chart above shows relatively synchronous movement across time by three of the four areas. The fourth area, the Harbor, floats at the top of the sales volume chart. Similarly, the Harbor area sinks to the bottom of the median price chart.

Homes in the Harbor area are typically what’s known as “entry level.” They are small homes, often condominiums, and are priced at the bottom of the scale. These are the homes newly wed couples buy, and the homes that house growing families. They are the type of properties occupied by most Angelenos, whether they be homeowners or tenants.

None of that explains the huge swings, though. What does is family economics—cash flow. When both prices and interest rates are low, the entry level market sings. When the cost of home ownership rises, this is the first area to fall and it usually falls the deepest. March sales across the Harbor dropped by 39% from March of 2022. At the same time median pricing at the Harbor dropped 2%–not nearly enough to offset interest rates that are running in the 6%-7% range. Until the mortgage interest rate goes down, or the asking price drops, or both, this market is going to be slow.

Inventory is currently 336 homes on the market, with time on the market averaging 60 days.

Median Down 20% for Homes on the PV Hill

Even more volatile than the Beach, homes on the Palos Verdes Peninsula dropped over a half million dollars in median price from the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023. That steep yellow line on the chart below shows the downward direction of home prices in the area. Interestingly, the Beach Cities and the PV Hill declines have been almost exactly the same for the past 90 days.

As noted above, the Peninsula, with its large lots and relatively few homes, invariably shows a lot of volatility. The 20% drop in year over year median price is matched by a 33% drop in sales volume since March of 2022. Much of the median price increase seen last year resulted from a series of new construction sales. Those newly built homes came in at top dollar and helped elevate the median price nicely.

Builders are now anticipating a long, slow recession/recovery, so the PV market is not likely to see that benefit come back for a few years.

This newsletter focuses on residential, but it should be noted the Palos Verdes commercial marketplace has also taken a significant hit since the pandemic. Retail lease prices are at rock bottom and lots of space is available. It would not be surprising to see some of the older commercial space re-configured to meet residential needs. Such a transition could help the cities on the Hill meet their obligation to the State for additional residential construction to alleviate the housing shortage.

Inventory today shows 83 homes available, with an average time of 80 days on the market.

Stability Marks the Inland Area

The “family friendly” Inland Area is surrounded on three sides by the Beach Cities, PV Hill and the Harbor Area. It’s a quiet environment, usually without the drama and speculation found in the more upscale Beach and Hill areas. Anchored by Torrance, the market direction is normally the same as the rest of the South Bay, without the more radical ups and downs. March real estate activity reflected that nature in price and sales volume compared to March of last year.

The “Median Price by Quarter” chart above shows a year over year decrease of 6%, in keeping with annual results from the Hill and Harbor areas. The chart also shows a long, steady green line that doesn’t offer surprises, or dramatic movements in any direction. The current recession is expected to bring prices down somewhat, making the Inland area an excellent target for home buyers, or investors during the coming months.

Available as of this writing, are 130 homes. In keeping with the Inland image of slow and steady, the statistics still show only an average of 47 days on the market. Compare that to 80 on the Hill and 62 at the Beach. Buyers are more abundant here, as long as mortgage interest rates are affordable.

Footnotes

The areas are:
Beach: includes the cities of El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and Redondo Beach;
PV Hill: includes the cities of Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills and Rolling Hills Estates;
Harbor: includes the cities of San Pedro, Long Beach, Wilmington, Harbor City and Carson;
Inland: includes the cities of Torrance, Gardena and Lomita.

Photo by Rich Brents on Unsplash

Recession Drives Price Reductions

Median Price Tumbles

Last year ended with sales volume off, median prices coming down and revenue dropping fast. January showed little change. February of this year shows sales volume up from January by as much as 50%. The reason why is obvious–the median price is simultaneously dropping by percentages as high as 18%.

Comparing February activity to February a year ago shows significant declines in both sales volume and in median price. At that point in 2022 the market was just beginning to dip a toe in the recessionary waters. Now we’re wading into it.

The first week of March Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress, “…the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.” Powell’s pointed remark clearly tells us the most recent pause in interest rate hikes is momentary. The lowest local mortgage rates we could find at the time was 6.75%. As such, we anticipate rates in excess of 7% by summer.

February Sales Volume Climbs

About the second week of January mortgage lenders began loosening the interest rates in anticipation of a relaxation by the Federal Reserve. For the most part, local rates stayed below 6% until late in February when the Fed began dropping hints that inflation was still raging.

After a “soft” January, sellers in the market were dropping prices and buyers responding positively by making offers. Now that mortgage rates have resumed climbing, sellers will have to drop prices some more to remain attractive to buyers.

With only two months behind us this year, there are indications lenders will “see-saw” the rates throughout the year. Already this year we have seen retail mortgage rates moving up and moving down without influence from the Fed. It seems to be an effort to induce buyers to accept high interest rates based on the theory they were higher last week so this temporary reduction is a good deal.

Revenue Climbs From January Depth

On a month-to-month basis, revenue across the South Bay is up 21% from January of this year. Don’t get excited—it’s only one month. January was one of the lowest performing months we’ve seen recently.

On a year-over-year basis, revenue is down 34% from last February! January was 38% lower than January of 2022. Year to date through February, revenue in the South Bay is down 36% and is expected to continue falling.

One of the more important statistics to note is how 2023 activity compares to 2019, which was the most recent “normal” year of real estate business. Across the South Bay real estate revenue for the first two months of 2023 is 7% below the same period in 2019. Restated, the South Bay has already lost over four years of gain in real estate revenue.

Median Price Slips, Volume Rises

More units of housing were sold in February than January, and the median price was lower in February. The Beach Cities saw a drop of 18% from January while the PV Hill held the decline to 3%. The Harbor area fell 4% and the Inland area dropped 14%.

Comparing February of this year to February of 2022 brought a harsher focus to the picture. All four areas have fallen from last years median price. The Beach is down 17%, the Harbor down 11%, the Hill is off 29% and the Inland cities down just 3%.

2023 Versus 2019 Shows a Sinking Market

The summary numbers comparing the first two months of 2023 to the most recent “normal” year of 2019 are not encouraging. Overall, sales revenue has fallen 7% below revenue figures for the same period in 2019. The Harbor area has fared the best, showing a 9% increase in revenue over January and February activity in 2019. Of course, that was four years ago and classic inflation would give that type of gain. It’s clear the “inflation on steriods” we’ve been experiencing is gone from the real estate industry.

The Beach cities provide an excellent indication of where the real estate economy is going. The first two months of revenue for 2023 is down 32%. Palos Verdes is down 2%, while the Inland area is up be a mere 1%. After four years of pandemic, recession, inflation and Federal Reserve manipulation the real estate market is tanking.

Disclosures:

Photo by Ussama Azam on Unsplash

2022 South Bay Real Estate Wrap

We’re taking a little different approach with this post. Because it’s not only the end of the month, but the end of the year, we’re doing a quick summary of the monthly data, followed by some more detailed discussion of how the individual areas have fared over the past year. We’ll even try some crystal gazing while we walk through the annual data for each neighborhood.

This is a great place to bring in our At A Glance table. It displays in just a few numbers how all the areas of the LA South Bay are doing compared to last month, and compared to this same month last year.

Looking at December vs November, once again the percentage of unsold homes has increased and the number of homes sold below last month’s median price has also marginally increased. More importantly, on a year over year basis the amount of red ink is even greater. Losses in number of sales and in the value of those sales is clearly growing.

Despite all the negative numbers, there may be a light in the future. For the past couple weeks we have observed a softening in the mortgage interest rates. If that turns out to be more than a mid-winter teaser rate, this spring may shine a bit brighter than previously anticipated. We’re not holding our breath though. Recent speeches from Federal Reserve Bank leaders have stated a clear intent to “hold the line” on driving down inflation with mortgage interest rate increases.

Beach Cities Home Sales Down 47%

Compared to 2021, fewer homes have been sold in the Beach Cities every month of 2022 than the same month the previous year. January started the trend with a decline of 28% versus the number of homes sold in 2021. That difference continued to increase all year. By December sales were 47% lower than the previous December.

As the interest rates climbed, the number of home sales dropped. Looking at the total sales volume for the year, 35% fewer homes were sold in the Beach area during 2022, than were sold in 2021. Of course, 2020 and 2021 were the highly erratic pandemic years. So, looking into sales at the Beach for the last few years we find the number of homes sold has already dropped 21% below the number sold during 2019, our last normal economic year. Effectively, the Covid-19 pandemic created. Then erased any gains of the past three years at the Beach.

Homes sold in: 2019 – 1572 (market normal)
2020 – 1572 (market direction down six months, up six months)
2021 – 1910 (market direction down two months, up ten months)
2022 – 1242 (market direction down twelve months)

While the Beach Cities suffered the largest drop in sales volume for 2022, the South Bay as a whole has also dropped below the sales figures for 2019.

Sales Volume Down Across the Board

All areas started the 2022 year down from the prior month and down from the same month in the prior year. February results were mixed with the Harbor and Palos Verdes areas showing stronger results. March sales jumped up as buyers realized the rising interest rates were about to price them out of the market. From April on, sales volume across the South Bay was trending down on a year over year basis.

In sheer number of sales, the Harbor area fell the farthest. In 2021 annual sales 5292 homes were sold in the Harbor cities, while in 2022 the number dropped to 4017. That amounted to only a 24% decrease compared to the 35% annual collapse in the Beach areas.

On a month to prior month measure, sales declined six months out of nine across the South Bay. Occasionally one or two areas would post a positive sales month, but in the end, 2022 showed a 26% drop in sales volume from 2021 across the South Bay.

Sales Dollars Diving

With the number of sales dropping in a range of 25% to 50% it’s not a surprise to discover the total dollar value of those sales has taken a dive. As the chart below shows, the first quarter of the year was generally positive, then reality set in and the buyers started walking away. The rest of the year was little more than a measure of the recession.

Monthly revenue in the Harbor area alone dropped $200 million between March and December. The Beach cities and the Palos Verdes area lost about $150 million a month in sales value. Inland area sales for the same period are off approximately $75 million.

One should consider these declines in the context of the pandemic. Early on, while much of the world was in lockdown, the government flooded the citizenry with easy money, hoping to keep the economy afloat. Mortgage interest rates were already at the bottom because the economy was just recovering from the last recession. The result was a real estate boom starting in summer of 2021, which continued until March of 2022.

The housing market is now in the “bust” part of the cycle and we anticipate it to last through 2023. Gross sales across the South Bay jumped up from $8 billion in 2019 to $12 billion in 2021. That’s clearly unsustainable, especially from the perspective of a Federal Reserve System which is looking for 2% growth. So far the market decline has taken back about 23% of that $4 billion bubble.

Median Price Is Slipping

There is a lull between when buyers stop buying and prices start dropping. Most sellers need to see headlines about the market change before they make a price reduction. Median prices started to slide in August at the Beach and on PV Hill. The year ended with most areas having experienced multiple monthly declines in the median price. Despite that, median prices still exceeded those of 2021 by roughly 7%.

Comparing 2022 to 2019 better shows the inflation factor. Generally speaking the South Bay ended the year with median prices 30%-35% higher than they were in 2019.

The Palos Verdes market is comparatively small, thus is typically volatile on a monthly basis. The yellow line on the chart above shows the range of high and low median prices. Since mid-year the median price has drifted down and merged into the downward trend.

Year End Versus 2019

We’ve been comparing 2022 to 2019 all year because real estate sales during the height of the pandemic were so out of the ordinary, regular year over year comparisons yielded untenable results. The chart below depicts the current year total sales for the South Bay compared to sales from 2019.

Tracking the blue line, one can see where sales dropped below 2019 values in August, recovered in September, then slipped below again for the fourth quarter of the year. December sales didn’t fall quite as far as projected, but still came in about $200 million less than December of 2019.

The end of the year reflected accumulated sales of approximately $9.3 billion. That would mean 2022 total dollar sales come in at $1.3 billion above the $8 billion total dollar value sold in 2019. Across the South Bay that was an 18% increase.

Broken out by community, we found total dollars sold in the Beach cities to be 4% above 2019, followed by the Inland area with a 20% increase. Harbor came in next with a 21% increase and the PV Hill with a 35% increase.

We expect both sales volume and median price to continue declining through most, if not all, of 2023. By mid-year of 2024 there should be evidence of the beginnings of a recovery.

Disclosures:

Photo by T Narr on Unsplash

The Recession Continues – November Home Sales

Home Sales Plunge

November saw the number of homes sold in the South Bay fall 12% from October totals. Sales volume has declined in seven of the eleven months on a month to month basis since the beginning of the year. Sales tipped up a modest 2% on Palos Verdes peninsula, while volume dropped 7% at the Harbor, 18% at the Beach and 24% in the Inland area.

Year over year sales look even more depressed with a 45% drop from 2021 sales across the South Bay. The Beach Cities led the plunge with a 50% fall, followed by the Harbor area at 46%. Palos Verdes and the Inland area brought up the rear with 35% and 41% respectively. The falloff in sales began with a 17% drop in January and has been increasingly negative since.

Because 2020 and 2021 were both significantly impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and the governmental response to it, 2019 is the most recent year with a normal business pattern. Comparing 2022 sales volume with 2019 provides the truest measure of the current recession. Overall, for the first 11 months of the year, the South Bay has experienced a 9% decline in sales compared to 2019.

Through the month of November, sales on the PV Hill have fared the best, showing a modest drop of 3% compared to the same time period in 2019. The Harbor and Inland areas which generally are entry level for the South Bay both fell back 8% for the same period. So far this year the Beach Area has suffered the largest declines with an 18% drop in number of sales versus 2019.

Annual Sales Dollars Off By $3.2 Billion

Comparing year-to-date sales of homes in the Los Angeles South Bay shows a drop in dollar value from 2021 to 2022 of over $3.2 billion. That represents an over-all decline of 22% in total dollars sold from the same 11-month period last year.

The Beach area has been the hardest hit so far with a drop of 34%. The PV Hill has dropped 29%, while the Harbor area has fallen 22%. The Inland area fared the best, only down 19% for the same 11 months.

On a month to month basis, the decline in sales accelerated from 7% in October to 18% in November. The Inland area which had flipped to a positive gain in October plummeted by 30% in November. Similarly the Beach which had been up 7% in October fell 25% in November. The Harbor and Hill areas were off by 8% and 11% respectively.

At this point year to date South Bay sales dollars for 2022 still exceed the total for 2019 by 22%. We expect the end of year numbers to be positive. However, with monthly sales figures shrinking by 30%-40%, we project 2023 to fall below 2019.

Median Price Shows Mixed Results

Statistically speaking, the Beach cities median price fell 8% from October to November. The reality is that the median in October was unusually high. Multiple sales of Strand property drove the median up 14% that month. The blue line on the chart below shows the one month blip and median prices dropping back to a steeper downward pace in November.

Palos Verdes was flat compared to the previous month. This is a rare event as one can see by the erratic yellow line on the chart. Because the physical area is smaller than the other geographical areas, the number of sales is smaller, and mathematically the sample size is smaller. Thus one or two outlier sales can create wide swings in the chart.

Similar to the Beach area, the median price dropped 7% in the Inland area. This decline follows two months of no change, preceded by three months of month over month negative median prices.

At the same time the Harbor area experienced a month to month increase of 2% in the median price. Researching this anomaly we discovered 11 new construction sales in Carson had been accumulated and posted simultaneously by the developer. It’s worth noting that Harbor area median prices have also been elevated to some extent by the new construction on Western Avenue in San Pedro.

From a year over year perspective, November median prices continued to fall in comparison to those of November 2021. The Harbor and PV Hill areas were down 5% and 2%, respectively. Median price in the Inland area dropped from positive 6% in October to negative .05% in November. The Beach cities remained positive with growth of 1% in November. That being in contrast to an unexpected growth of 20% last month caused by the sale of multiple Strand properties in Manhattan Beach.

Despite increasingly deep reductions in sales volume and in median price throughout this year, the median is still higher than it was in 2019. Palos Verdes home owners have fared the best with the current median price 40% above the November 2019 median. The Harbor area is still 34% higher and the Beach cities still maintain a 31% advantage. The Inland area has proven to be relatively stable throughout the pandemic and currently the median price is 27% above that of 2019 for the same 11 month period.

Year End Projection Updated

Tracking the blue line, one can see where sales dropped below 2019 values in August, recovered in September, then slipped below again in October and November. Assuming the decline continues at the same rate, we are forecasting the December sales to drop another $75 million, or so.

The end of the year would then reflect accumulated sales of approximately $9.4 billion. That would mean 2022 total dollar sales come in at $1.4 billion above the $8 billion total dollar value sold in 2019. Across the South Bay that would be approximately an 18% increase.

Broken out by community, we forecast total dollars sold in the Beach cities to be 6% above 2019, followed by the Inland area with a 20% increase. Harbor comes in next with a 21% increase and the PV Hill with a 35% increase.

At a Glance

As 2022 draws to a close we find the final numbers for both sales volume and median price show the year to be rapidly declining from the final figures for 2021. However, the totals all remain positive. We expect December to continue the trend downward, though the year should end on a positive note.

With the number of units sold decreasing every month by 35% to 50%, and the median price now falling, 2023 should be firmly in the grip of the recession by mid-year.

Disclosures:

The areas are:
Beach: comprises the cities of El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and Redondo Beach;
PV Hill: comprises the cities of Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills and Rolling Hills Estates;
Harbor: comprises the cities of San Pedro, Long Beach, Wilmington, Harbor City and Carson;
Inland: comprises the cities of Torrance, Gardena and Lomita.

Photo by Elias Shankaji on https://unsplash.com/

October Home Sales Down 40%

Compared to October of last year, home sales in the Los Angeles South Bay have dropped by 40%. Hardest hit was the Harbor area which fell 47% from last year’s October numbers. The Beach Cities were down 40%, while the PV Hill and the Inland area fell 32% and 25% respectively.

Month to month sales across the South Bay were down another 12% compared to a 9% drop in September. Looking at the different communities found mixed results. The Beach and Inland areas improved sales over September statistics, while the Harbor area and PV Hill continued downward. Harbor area sales plummeted another 20%, falling from -5% last month to -25% in October.

The pandemic created a wild roller-coaster ride for Harbor area real estate. Being the least expensive of the four areas, Harbor area homes are the most affordable and attracted the most attention when interest rates were ultra-low and entry level buyers were able to qualify for purchase loans. Now, with the interest rate already double the 3.5% of 2021, many potential buyers no longer have the cash flow to purchase.

Note that 476 Harbor area homes sold last October versus 252 this October. Looking back to 2019, the most recent “normal” year we find there were 397 homes sold in the Harbor area. This demonstrates how artificially inflated sales figures were in 2021 and how far sales have already fallen in just seven months from the peak.

In mid-November, following another .75% increase by the Federal Reserve System, the Mortgage Bankers Association is reporting a drop of 46% in mortgage applications to purchase a home compared to last year. That decline is accompanied by an 88% decline in applications to refinance a home loan. That amounts to a lot of money out of circulation in the economy.

Total Dollars in Sales Declines $1.8 Billion

As of the end of October South Bay home sales for 2022 total $8.3 billion. That compares to $10.1 billion for the same time frame in 2021. Already this year the gross sales revenue has fallen by $1.8 billion, or 5%. As the market slips deeper into recession, we expect the monthly sales revenue will continue to decline, shrinking the total even more.

The graph above shows the downturn starting in March and generally trending down for the balance of the year. It’s important to remember that home sales are a major driver in the economy. Every home sold results in a miniature boost to the economy as new homeowners relocate, acquire new furniture & appliances, repair and update their new home. Most experts estimate an additional 15%-20% for ancillary economic activity stimulated by real estate sales.

Using 2019 as a baseline, we can trace the rise and fall of the South Bay real estate market through the pandemic. In 2019 the total cumuilative sales was $7.9 billion. In 2020, when the pandemic hit and the government began piling on financial assistance and incentives, the annual sales reached $8.7 billion. When 2021 rolled around the ultra low interest rate alone was enough to drive annual sales to $12.1 billion, an increase of 53% over the 2019 sales figures. Looking now at 2022, we are forecasting a year end total of approximately $9.5 billion, a decline of 22% from 2021.

An additional concern this year is the reduction in local and state tax revenues. The pandemic forced significant governmental expenditures to mitigate harm to citizens. A recession, coming on the heels of Covid-19, threatens to up-end the economy. California’s budget reserves haven’t yet recovered from the pandemic and state revenues are already slipping.

Median Price Shifting Down

Wealth is often measured by the value of owned real estate. For most families their real estate is the home they live in, which is valued per the median price of comparable homes. Thus, nearly everyone is interested in the median price for the area.

Year over year, comparing 2021 to 2022 for the same month, the median price continued to rise until August of this year. Since then results have been “choppy” with median prices down August, September and October for PV Hill sales, down two months out of three at the Beach, down one month in the Harbor area and up all three months in the Inland area. (How the areas are defined may be found at the end.)

Looking month over month, comparing each month to the one prior, shows a clearer picture. January started the year with declines compared to December, both at the Beach and in the Inland area. By July and August all four areas were showing declines compared to the prior month. The repeated monthly decreases in the median prices built up to the annual decreases which began showing up in August and have continued through October.

When Is It a Recession?

Since June of this year the total dollar value of South Bay sales has been declining. Combined, the precipitous drop in number of homes sold and the gradual decline in median price are driving the revenue below that of 2019 on a monthly basis. The chart below shows August as the first occasion where the total dollar value of homes sold in 2022 fell below the monthly sales in 2019. October sales for this year ended just shy of the same month sales in 2019.

Our projections (shown below) for the 2022 year end indicate the total sales for the year will fall below the 2019 total sales dollars. While this isn’t an official definition, or designation, it matches our understanding of a recession. Any time our financial situation is headed backwards in time we think of it as a recession.

The challenge now is to consider how this recession will play out in time. The Federal Reserve System (Fed) has changed the game rules since the Great Recession. A prominent change has been the speed with which the Fed raised the prime rates for member banks. In response to the Great Recession, the Fed gradually raised rates over a period of years. This gradually slowed home sales. This time, the Fed has raised rates much faster, resulting in much more immediate impact on the real estate market.

At the moment, all expectations are for another rate increase in December, despite indications the economy is crashing. A seriously disappointing Black Friday might convince the Fed to ease up, but we’re anticipating that relief. If history and the immediate data proceed along the current path we should see a lot of price reductions in 2023.

For those who must sell, it’s an unfortunate time. There are ways to ameliorate the negatives, but it will probably still be negative. Those who are in a postion to purchase have the benefit of reduced prices, combined with the negative impact of higher interest rates. Generally speaking, very few are happy with a recession, though we have talking to a group of buyers who think pooling cash and buying as a consortium/collective is a masterful idea right now.

At a Glance

In addition to being relatively self explanatory, our At-a-Glance table is discussed throughout the above paragraphs. We won’t bore you with any more chatter about it, but we find it immensely useful as a quick reference. Some of our readers have even said they immediately go to the bottom of the article to see how much red ink there is. (Sorry. It is getting redder, but there are some delightful opportunities out there.)

Disclosures:

The areas are:
Beach: comprises the cities of El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and Redondo Beach;
PV Hill: comprises the cities of Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills and Rolling Hills Estates;
Harbor: comprises the cities of San Pedro, Long Beach, Wilmington, Harbor City and Carson;
Inland: comprises the cities of Torrance, Gardena and Lomita.

Photo by jordis small on Unsplash

A Recession on the Horizon

September Home Sales Down 35%

Last year saw home sales in the South Bay escalate dramatically as buyers sought to become homeowners while interest rates were still abnormally low. With interest rates rapidly rising it’s no surprise that sales are plummetting in 2022. The Harbor area, traditionally an entry level market, handily out-sold the balance of the South Bay with a drop of only 26%. The remaining areas suffered sales drops ranging from 42% to 47%, with the South Bay as a whole dropping 35%.

Compared to last year, cumulative South Bay home sales were down 21% as of September. The first three quarters of 2021 saw 7767 townhomes and single family residences sold, versus 6163 during the same period this year.

Recognizing that 2020 and 2021 were exceptionally aberrant, we also compared the 2022 year-to-date sales volume to 2019, the last normal year of business prior to the pandemic. As of the end of September 2022 cumulative sales volume was 4% lower than it was for the first nine months of 2019.

The decline from 2019 sales is uneven in that the biggest drop, 15%, is seen in the Beach area, which is typically at the high end of the market. Sales in the Harbor area only dropped back by 2%, while sales in the Inland area fell by 4%. The Palos Verdes peninsula fared best, actually increasing in quantity sold over 2019 by 4%. As always we offer a cautionary note when looking at statistics for property on the PV Hill. Because there are considerably fewer homes in that area, percentile statistics can take large swings.

Median Prices Mixed in September

The number of homes sold in 2022 has declined, indirectly affecting the median price of those homes, as well as the total dollar value of all the homes sold in the same period. A closer look at the median price of homes sold through September yields some surprising changes.

Since prices increased dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic we anticipated finding the median price from 2022 to be considerably higher than that of 2019. Indeed, that is the case with the median in the Beach area up 31% over that of 2019, the Harbor up 36%, PV Hill homes up a staggering 47% and the Inland area up 30%. But, that is gradually reversing.

July and August of this year showed depreciation in the median price across the South Bay. Prices consistently dropped in a range from 2% down (Inland) to 18% down on PV Hill. September sales broke the pattern with only the Beach cities losing value per the median. The Inland area was flat, showing no change from August. In an unexpected twist, both the Harbor area and the Hill came in with an increase in the median price. The growth was modest, up 6% for the Harbor area and up 3% for the Hill. Despite the slight improvement in September prices we anticipate continued downward pressure as inventory grows and time on market stretches.

Looking at the median price on a year-over-year basis, we find September with minor declines from August. The Palos Verdes cities showed prices dropping by 2% last month and this month. At the same time the Beach cities dropped 2%, while the Harbor and Inland areas increased by 4% and 2% respectively.

Median prices started 2022 with increases regularly coming in well above 10% growth. In April we saw the first negative where the median for the Hill fell 2% from 2021. Since then we have watched the rate of price appreciation decline from double digits until now in September with both the Beach and PV areas losing value.

We fully expect all areas of the South Bay to reflect declining median prices before the end of the year. While prices will be down on both a month-to-month and year-to-year basis, we don’t anticipate the median to fall below 2019 price points this year.

Total South Bay Sales Dollars

When the number of sales is decreasing and the median price of those sales is also decreasing, one has to assume the gross revenue will also decrease. Governor Newsome has been warning for several weeks that the 2022-23 fiscal year will not see the State level revenue surpluses California has been enjoying.

During the first quarter of 2022 gross revenue from real estate sales remained predominately positive, with year-over-year growth rates of about 6% per month. Since March the South Bay has only seen two instances of sales growth, 7% in the Harbor area for April and 3% in the Inland area for June. Every other entry on the chart is negative, with September declines averaging about 40%.

Cumulative sales for the first three quarters of 2022 were off by 29% compared to 2021. Our monthly sales dollars chart shows a zig-zag downward trend since spring of this year. Of course, 2019 is a more realistic point of comparison as a result of market gyrations created by the pandemic and our government’s fiscal response.

Comparing 2022 sales totals to 2019 yields a clearer picture of the current direction of the market. Instead of a sea of red ink, we can clearly see that 2022 sales have remained above those of 2019 with the exception of August. Sales started normally, then in March the Federal Reserve Bank announced a .25% interest rate hike, and promised more to come.

Buyers threatened with increasing monthly payments jumped into the fray and pumped sales up for a couple months. Then a new .5% increase, accompanied with the promise of multiple .75% increases throughout the year began a downward slide in home sales that is continuing.

Following the trajectory of the maroon line, and assuming the interest rates continue to increase, we predict 2022 sales will drop below 2019 again in October. The Federal Reserve Bank has already announced plans for another .75% increase in November, followed by a .5% increase in December. Adding another 1.25% will bring the full increase for the year to 4%. We envision the fall in sales growing steeper, bringing total sales below that of 2019 for the final quarter of the year.

Statistical Summary

This would be the heart of the discussion if we were dealing with a normal fiscal environment. Here we could talk about month-to-month changes and changes from the same month last year to this year. Instead we’re faced with an unanticipated side effect of the pandemic—out-of-control inflation followed by a steep recession.

Goodbye Marymount, Hello UCLA!

Marymount California University, is no more. But, shed no tears! The prestigious University of California at Los Angeles plans to open the site for classes in the fall of 2023-24. Escrow had not yet closed as of this writing, but all appears to be moving forward at good speed.

We are told the finalists included four developers and three educational institutions. We’re pleased that UCLA was the successful bidder. We’ve heard some of their ideas and look forward to having them as neighbors.

However, we’re also interested in what kind of potential the developers saw in this deal. There’s a total of 11 acres already developed as residential and 24.5 acres developed as a campus. What would that have looked like if a residential developer purchased the site?

The 24.5 acres, some of it with gorgeous ocean views, is the jewel in the transaction. A little “back of the envelope” calculation says that using an average of 15,000 square feet per lot, Which is about the average in that neighborhood, one could build about 70 high end homes at the location. New construction on similar sites is selling for about $7.5M today, giving a value for the finished project of approximately $525M. Not bad for a land purchase of $80M, especially considering we haven’t started looking at the 11 acres.

There exist some legal complications in the 86 unit, 11 acre property. Deed restrictions purported to require the land to be used to house students. That can readily be accommodated by an educational institution, like UCLA. Developers on the other hand might have to pay some serious legal costs to do anything else with the land.

And it might have been worth the legal expense. A quick look at the apartment building market in the South Bay shows roughly comparable buildings selling for about $420K per unit. That would make 86 units worth about $36M, almost half the stated purchase price.

We’ll never know what might have been. The entire South Bay can look forward though, to an educational revival. A refreshed campus with UCLA’s academic resources and access to the university program at AltaSea and other port projects is a great starting ground.

Photo by D koi on Unsplash

South Bay Median Home Price Plummets

With four months left in a very chaotic real estate year, we want to take this opportunity to lay some ground work for understanding why the market has headed into a recession. And, to keep things on a positive note, we end with a couple of suggestions on how you might profit from this turn of events.

Some of the nation’s most respected analysts (including Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates and Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics) are predicting recessionary price drops ranging from 10-20% and lasting through the next two years. (Arguing that we’re only looking at a brief correction, pundits at Goldman Sachs and the Mortgage Bankers Association continue to predict single digit growth.) Meanwhile, here on the street, we’re watching prices drop across the board for the second month in a row.

In August we reported that median home prices across the Los Angeles South Bay fell from July, the prior month. Now looking at August sales we find all four areas of the South Bay showed declining median prices again. The month-over-month price drops ranged from 6% at the Beach to 25% in the Inland cities. (See bottom for description of areas.)

Underlining the month-to-month price slippage, three of the four areas also showed declining prices versus the same month last year. Only in the Harbor area are homes still selling for more than they did in 2021. Even there, median price has slid from 9% down to 4% above August of 2021.

2022 Compared to “Normal” Business in 2019

The past two years have seen real estate stumble with the Covid lockdowns in 2020, then skyrocket with the low interest rates in 2021. It’s worth a look back to 2019 to see how the current conditions compare to the most recent “normal” market.

Looking at sales volume in the period January through August of 2019, 1064 homes had sold in the Beach cities. So far this year only 905 homes have sold. That is a 15% drop in sales since the last normal year of business. The trend line for the Beach area has been sliding downward since April.

For the first eight months of 2019 the Harbor area showed sales of 2955 compared to 2945 for this year. That is a drop of .3% – a statistically insignificant change. However, the trend line has been dropping since March. August sales were up slightly from July, which was an unusually slow month for the Harbor area. We expect sales to continue a downward trajectory into 2023.

Palos Verdes home sales for the same period in 2019 totaled 537 versus 568 in 2022. The Hill is the only part of the South Bay where year to date 2022 sales exceed those of 2019. At 6% it’s a healthy increase, too. Despite being the best performing area in South Bay, Palos Verdes sales volume peaked in March and continues to slide. Sales in July were unusually weak, so August shows an upward step in the trend line.

Sales in the Inland area, very much like the Harbor area are down only .4% from 2019 sales for the same period. The difference is statistically insignificant, and the trend line is headed downward.

Declining sales volume creates a larger inventory of homes to sell. As the inventory grows, sellers have more competition and buyers become more demanding and prices start declining. We anticipate continuing growth of available inventory, followed in late fall or early winter by a spate a price drops.

Median Price Up 54% Since 2019

Palos Verdes homes have seen the greatest impact of the Covid-era buying mania. Comparing median prices from the first eight months of 2019 to the first eight of 2022, we find a 54% escalation on the Hill. Normal growth over a three year period would have created 9-10% in price appreciation. Expect much of that excessive price expansion to be erased over the coming months.

Compared to 2019, Beach area median prices have shot up by 32%. This is easily three times normal growth. As we see in the chart below prices started adjusting downward as early as May in the Beach cities.

Since 2019 median prices for the Inland area have climbed 30%. Here in the August 2022 chart below we see Inland area prices have been dropping steadily since May when the median was $910K. During that four month period values have slipped by over $50K.

In the Harbor area home prices have escalated 34%. From 2019 at $565K to 2020 at $607K the Harbor area median grew $40k. Then in 2021, it added another $90K reaching $700K. So far in 2022 the median has reached as high as $830K – another $130K increase, but has now dropped back to $725K, losing $105K off the June median.

Most home buyers are constrained by their income to a particular price range, and salaries have not increased at a rate even remotely similar to real estate prices. Recent studies have shown about 25% of potential buyers were priced out of the purchase market in California by the soaring Covid-era prices.

Interest Rate Shrinks Annual Sales Dollars

In total sales dollars for January through August of 2019, the South Bay weighed in with $5.3 billion. During the same period in 2020 the aggregate amount shrank back to $4.9 billion, followed in 2021 by an upward explosion to $7.9 billion. So far in 2022 the area has reached $6.9 billion.

Each time the Federal Reserve System (fed) increases the short term interest rate the pool of potential buyers shrinks again. As this is written, the Fed is preparing to increase the rate by at least .75% in mid-September and two more increases are anticipated by the end of 2022.

At the current rate of declining value, we estimate the 2022 annual sales value to be approximately $9.5 billion, a decrease of 27% from 2021. Remember that huge budget surplus California had last year? Do not anticipate another this year, and possibly not for a couple of years as the state works its way through this recession.

The Silver Lining in the Cloud

One theory of success in real estate is “Buy low, sell high.” Flippers subscribe to that concept, buying at the bottom, updating and selling at the top of the immediate market. Another theory, not as well supported, but statistically more profitable, is “Buy and Hold.” Buy a piece of property at the best price you can and use it or lease it but – never sell it.

A deep market adjustment doesn’t come very often, so when it does one should take maximum advantage. At the moment it appears there will be a heavy price contraction starting late this year. We’ll know better in late fall and early winter, but all indications today are that a wise property investor should be preparing to buy at the bottom of the market – soon. We constantly search the Southern California coast for outsstanding investment bargains. Tell us what you want to invest – we’ll tell you where to buy.

Methodology

For purposes of comparing homes in the LA South Bay, we have divided the South Bay into four areas. Each is composed of homes of roughly comparable style, geographically similar location and physical characteristics, as well as approximately similar demographic characteristics.

The areas are:
Beach: comprises the cities of El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and Redondo Beach;
PV Hill: comprises the cities of Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills and Rolling Hills Estates;
Harbor:. comprises the cities of San Pedro, Long Beach, Wilmington, Harbor City and Carson;
Inland: comprises the cities of Torrance, Gardena and Lomita.

Main Photo by Amelia Noyes on Unsplash

South Bay Home Sales Drop -17%

The 2022 recession appears to be coming in stronger and faster than predicted. Year to date home sales in the South Bay have dropped -17% compared to 2021 sales through July. Month to month, the change from June to July was -12%. The July drop followed a lackluster June performance of only 1% over May which was itself down -13% from April.

Money was cheap and readily available in 2021, and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) was fore warning everyone that the mortgage interest rates were going to rise. The number of homes sold sky-rocketed, purchased both by owner-occupants and by investors hoping to snag interest rates at the absolute lowest in decades. Along with that came the bidding wars and the escalating prices. Looking back, one can readily see a correction in the making. At the time most experts were considering 2021 a trade-off for all the transactions lost during the 2020 lockdowns.

The last year we could consider normal was 2019. Compared to 2019, the number of homes sold during the first seven months of 2022 is nearly identical, hinting at a return to normalcy. However, a deeper look shows recent months dipping as much as -25% below 2019 sales volume. If sales volume continues to drop at this pace, we can anticipate starkly lower prices before the end of the year.

Steeply climbing interest rates have cost today’s buyers over 25% of their purchasing power so far in 2022. Some of those potential buyers will simply buy a less expensive home. Some of them will wait and save longer for the down payment. Some of them will become permanent renters. On the other hand, sellers have fewer options. They can decide not to sell, if that’s possible for them, or they can lower the price until a buyer can afford the home.

Median prices fell in all four market areas for July versus June of the current year. The overall drop was approximately -5%. (See chart below for detail.) So far in 2022, median prices have remained higher than those from last year. But, since April of this year median prices have consistently fallen on the year over year comparison. As noted earlier, we anticipate the median price dropping below last year sometime this fall or early winter.

“Should we wait to purchase?”

We hear this question a lot, and the answer is an unequivocal “No.” In the end result, chasing the elusive “bottom of the market” is a fool’s quest. By definition, when one recognizes the bottom of the market, it‘s already gone. We recommend that when you find a home that meets most of your needs and is within your budget, you should move on it.There are several reasons.

First, because the Fed is already projecting future interest rate changes which could easily eclipse the savings to be found in a correction. Alternatively, those future rates will prevent some potential purchasers from qualifying for a loan.

Second, because economics today is a web that reaches around the world. As we have seen just in the first few days of August; allowing grain movement on the other side of the world will affect our stock market, and available interest rates overnight. We live in a very volatile world and a perfect deal today may not exist tomorrow.

Sales Volume Down, Inventory Up

In March of this year there was essentially no inventory of homes for sale in the South Bay. Sellers were reporting literally dozens of competing offers on the few homes available. Today, in August, there is easily two months of inventory and homes are sitting on the market for increasingly long periods of time.

Sales in July fell in all four sectors. The Harbor area has now shown declining sales in four consecutive months. PV Hill sales have been off three of the last four months.

The Average Days On Market (ADOM) for the homes sold in July was 17, meaning it took 17 days from the time it was listed on the MLS until an offer was accepted. The ADOM for the homes currently active on the MLS is 46 days, a full month longer than those closing escrow in July.

A lesser known indicator of market condition is the number of homes that don’t sell before leaving the MLS. In July alone, 194 homes fell off the MLS. Of those, 41 Expired never having received an acceptable offer. The remaining 153 were removed because buyers were not showing interest at the listed price. Some of those sellers truly need to sell and will come back at an improved price. Most of them were hoping for a financial windfall and have set aside their plans.

Median Price Falling for South Bay Homes

The median price fell in July for all areas. The hardest hit was the Harbor area with a -6% drop in the median. The Hill was next, with a -5% loss, followed by the Beach and the Inland areas with -4% and -3% respectively.

Of the 116 homes sold at the Beach, 22 (19%) required a price reduction before getting an offer. The Harbor required 59 out of 329 (18%), the PV Hill 9 of 53 (17%), and the Inland area 17 of 153 (11%). Those were price reductions necessary to get an offer on the property, followed by a successful sale. Let’s look at properties active on the market, still trying to get an offer.

As this is written, the Inland area, shows 211 properties available with 77 having taken one or more price reductions already, without receiving an offer. That represents 35% of the currently available Inland homes. Homes at the Beach show 96 reduced of 228 (42%), on the Hill 53 reduced of 140 (38%), Harbor 215 reduced of 547 (39%).

So we see that nearly 20% of the homes sold in July needed a price reduction to get an offer. We also see that roughly 40% of the homes currently on the market have had one price reduction and may need further changes to stimulate offers.

Total Sales Revenue

The decrease in the number of homes sold in July, combined with the decline in median price for those homes pretty much guaranteed that the total sales value would drop as well. Across the South Bay revenue fell from last month by -16%. This will not make our tax assessor happy. Interestingly enough, Los Angeles County Tax Assessor Jeff Prang recently announced with pride a $122 billion growth in County property tax assessments as of January 1, 2022.

The Beach area fared the best, dropping only -2% in value. We noted quite a number of homes being sold as furnished rentals in July, like this one in Hermosa Beach. The Beach Cities are noted for their short stay vacation rentals (often referred to generically as AirBnBs) whether approved by the various cities, or not. Unfortunately there is no official accounting system for these properties. Even if one existed, many of the operators would be very resistant to a governmental accounting which could cause them taxation issues.

For the moment, Beach values seem to be the strongest of the South Bay. The Inland area followed with a -9% decline in total sales dollars. The Harbor area was next, off by -17%.

On the surface homes on the Palos Verdes Peninsula took the worst beating with a -41% decline in value from June sales. We remind our readers that the PV Hill is small by comparison to the other areas. As such, statistical measurements often appear distorted because many of the homes are unique and generate significant sales prices. Having said that, this month was a relatively mundane one for PV. Of the 53 sales, the low was an attached two bedroom, two bath condo which sold at $557K. The high sale was a six bedroom, 8 bathroom house in Rolling Hills which sold at $8 million. (For your valuation purposes, click here to see photographs and descriptions of the two homes.)

Lots of Red Ink

The table below shows the percentage of change in the number of homes sold and the median price of those homes two ways. The yellow shows change for the current month versus the prior month. The green shows change for the current month versus the same month last year.

From a seller’s perspective, these numbers would ideally all be black/positive. When any of them become red it shows a retrenchment in the South Bay real estate market.

From a buyer’s perspective the red ink is a good sign. It means purchasers can get more home for their money. For them, the real savings will come when that last column turns red.

Photo by Sandy Millar on Unsplash

PV Prices Surge; Beach Plummets

Palos Verdes Median Up +19% From May

We’ve said for years that land on the Palos Verdes peninsula is undervalued. We may not be able to say that much longer. Last month property on the Hill took another big jump upward in median price. That’s the second time in six months. When that yellow line peaked in February we found several new construction homes closed escrow in the same month boosting the median price dramatically.

**PV Median Up $364K while Beach falls by $80K**

This time we found two homes, selling in the same month, at over $10,000,000. To put that in perspective, during the past 12 months only four properties on the Hill have reached the $10M mark. So what are these rarefied houses that bring in over-the-top median prices? Let’s take a closer look. (Photos at link.)

The listing agent described 2005 Paseo del Mar as a single level with 5 bedrooms, 4 1/2 baths, formal living and dining rooms, 2 family rooms, pool, 4 car garage with gated entry and circular driveway. So what makes it worth $12.4M instead of $2M?

It seems 4582 square feet of house sitting on over an acre of land on the bluffs above the Pacific Ocean is worth about $10M more than if it had an inland address.

Similarly, 1417 Lower Paseo la Cresta is a grand estate offering over 15,000 square feet of lavish living space spread over 3 levels, with 9 bedrooms,13 bathrooms and two full kitchens. Additional highlights include the custom 15-seat theater, Italian Fantini mosaic pool, elevator, generator and an extensive home automation system.

Beach Cities Sales Down -34% From 2021

The Inland cities clearly leap-frogged the other three areas in volume of sales for June. Sales in the Inland area out-paced the rest of South Bay, erasing a -17% decline from May of this year and adding a +13% increase for June .

The next closest monthly sales volume was a +2% at the Beach. Harbor area sales showed the poorest comparable performance, dropping by -4% for the month, continuing a three month slide. Monthly sales volume in the Harbor area has declined 135 units just since March.

Let’s focus on the Harbor and that red line on the chart for just a moment. Remember this is an entry level market, where a little rise in the mortgage interest rate can quickly price a new buyer out of the running. Notice that sales in the Harbor area were at about 300 homes per month in January. By February a few buyers had noticed the interest rates climbing and took the leap.

Then March became the proverbial “last chance” to buy in the fast moving current market. Sales volume shot through the ceiling with a 61% increase in homes sold. Since then we have watched a classic collapse with prospective buyers melting into the woodwork, waiting for another opportunity.

Annual statistics are still reflecting the impact of two plus years of pandemic. Compared to June of last year, sales were down dramatically. The Inland area fared the best, coming in with a drop 0f -6% from 2021. Sales in the Beach cities and the Harbor area fell the farthest with a -34% and a -29% respectively.

Total Dollars Sold Up 71% In Just Two Years

Back in 2020, the first six months of the year had netted slightly over $3.1B in South Bay home sales. Fast forward to the first six months of 2022 and total sales is slightly over $5.3B. Restated, that’s a 71% increase in dollars spent on real estate in just two years.

Much of that increase was the result of the phenomenally low interest rates created by the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) to offset the financial impact of the pandemic. It was good for all those people who wanted homes and had down payment money. Investors did especially well, though we saw another big expansion of the inequality gap.

Coming out of the pandemic, we’re seeing the four areas moving erratically. The steep climbs of 2020 and 2021 seem to be leveling off, as the Fed tries desperately to slow what is viewed as a runaway real estate market.

Total sales dollars in 2019 were $7.9B, in 2020 up to $8.7B, and in 2021 up again to $12.1B. Since mortgage rates are still climbing, it’s a little early for forecasting, but we anticipate 2022 total sales to come in at about $11.3B.

Where Are We Going?

Comparing last year’s market to 2022 shows a continuing decline in sales, while simultaneously a continuing increase in median prices. That may still change before the end of the year.

In May we saw the quantity sold drop into the red numbers across the South Bay. For June the sales volume is only off in the Harbor area, but the Hill and the Beach are both marginal. We expect sales to gradually slow as the year closes. Indications are the Fed will ratchet up the mortgage interest rate another 2% which should bring transaction volume down substantially.

May also saw the median price drop at the Harbor. Then in June the median fell for the Beach cities and the Inland areas, while the Harbor bounced back. We expect both the median and the sales volume to fall back into the red zone by the end of the year.

Sales volume should move first. Then as sales slow and buyers become more selective, sellers will begin retrenching on price. We don’t anticipate major price reductions until 2023. However, there are a lot of moving parts to this years economy. Events on the other side of the world may still make big changes here.

Photo by Josephine Lin on Unsplash

LA South Bay Real Estate: May 2022

Number of Homes Sold

The number of homes sold in the South Bay has declined from last month, and has declined from last year. The quantities are actually rather dramatic given that May is typically a time of increasing sales. The drops range from -7% to -17% lower than April sales of this year, and from -17% to -25% below May of last year.

With over half the year remaining, mortgage interest rates have doubled, currently sitting around 6%. The hike in interest rates has so far reduced the average buying power by about -25%. Coupled with home price increases estimated to have risen 38% since the start of the pandemic, the immediate future of real estate looks dismal.

Inflated consumer prices are also blocking potential home buyers as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbs toward a 10% annual hike. There’s little chance of saving for a down payment when the price of everything on the shopping list is going up..

Retirement accounts are often a source of down payment funds. As of this writing the major stock market indices are all down: Dow Jones Industrial Average, -16%; S&P 500, -22%; Nasdaq Composite, -31%. Forecasts are growing for a Fed-induced recession that may begin as soon as this fall. Some potential buyers may see borrowing from their retirement fund to purchase a property as a means to preserve the capital during a recession. Others may not be in a position to do that.

Median Price Sold

May prices delivered a mixed message. The Palos Verdes Peninsula, which had seen two months of decline from a temporarily high median price, headed back up again. The Beach cities continued a steady climb, and the Inland area showed a modest price increase after having dropped 1% in April.

However, the Harbor area, which is as large as the other three areas combined, took a -6% hit to prices. We anticipate the Harbor and Inland areas, which comprise the bulk of the traditional middle class family homes in South Bay, to be the first to react to the economic stress.

Typically, the recession cycle starts with a slowing of sales. As properties languish on the market, sellers begin to reduce prices. One after another, median sales prices will drop until the price reduction offsets the impact to buyers. At that point, buyers will begin to support the reduced purchase prices and we can see growth in the market.

Experts differ in their estimates of how long this cycle will take, and when we can expect the market bottom. There are some predicting a rapid fall based on the speed with which the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) is reacting. The June meeting of the Fed ended with a .75% hike in the prime rate, and a promise to raise it at least another .75% before the end of the year. While that could slow the economy as early as the beginning of 2023, more conservative minds suggest the end of 2023 for a turn-around.

Area Sales Dollars

The total sales dollars tell the truest story. While sales are slowing and median prices are beginning to slow, the combination shows up here.

Everywhere except the Beach is showing reductions in total sales on a month to month basis, and on a year over year basis. The declines are small to date, with year over year ranging from -1% to -10% in May. Month to month changes ranged from +2% at the Beach to -19% in the Harbor area.

These early numbers follow the general pattern we’ve seen in recent recessions, whereby entry level homes are the first impacted and the last to recover. We anticipate the Harbor area to lead the charge down, followed by the Inland area. Recent years have shown the Beach to be the strongest growth area, so we expect the recession to hit there last, following declines on the Hill.

The nature of the impending recession is still uncertain. Some pundits are saying that at least initially we should expect “stagflation,” that odd environment we first encountered back in the 1990s when prices of everything continued to climb, along with job layoffs and massive unemployment. Other forecasters suggest that because the international economy is roiling with continuing high tariffs (courtesy of the last administration) and new monetary sanctions daily (courtesy of the current administration), this particular recession may last much longer than normal.

In Summary

As the table below shows, the majority of the negative impact for May happened in the quantity of housing units sold. With one exception, prices continued to escalate. We believe this is temporary and likely to change before the end of the year. The -6% drop in median price at the Harbor presages the direction of home pricing as inventory grows and listings stagnate.

Approximately 3 out of 4 listings coming across our desk recently have been either Price Reduction or Back On Market. That means property is staying on the market longer. The Average Days On Market (DOM) for May ranged from 10 days on the PV Hill to 14 days in the Harbor area. As recently as this winter we were still seeing multiple offers on the first day the property was available.

Another measure of the market condition is how far the average sales price declines in the first 30 days on market. We did a quick look for May and came up with these statistics. Thirty days after the original listing, the price had dropped from the original: at the Beach, -9%; the Harbor -6%; PV Hill -18%; Inland -5%. As of May, we’re also seeing property that has been on the market for several months, with several price reductions.

Notable Properties

The high and low sales for May were not terribly dramatic. A Manhattan Hill section home and a downtown Long Beach condominium. Thay are simply very big, and very small.

High Sale

Located at 812 5th St, this Manhattan Beach hill section home was originally listed at $10.5M and sold for $8,980,000 after 34 days active on the market. The home offers six bedrooms and seven full bathrooms in 5576 sq ft. Amenities included ocean view, pool, spa, custom waterfall & fire features, a full basement with recreation/media room, home theater, storage, a temperature-controlled wine cellar, and private guest quarters.

Low Sale

Measuring barely 381 sq ft, the studio condo at 819 E 4th St #25 sold for $215,000 in one day. Located in the vibrant East Village of Downtown Long Beach this tiny home offers a remodelled kitchen and bathroom. The unit sits on the second floor, overlooking the intersection of 4th and Alimitos and within walking distance of many downtown shops, clubs and eateries.

Main photo by Kostiantyn Li on Unsplash

LA South Bay Real Estate: The Recession Has Arrived

In a normal year one would expect April to be the turning point for the LA real estate market. March is still cold and the children are still in school for another 10 weeks. April’s the month when the weather turns warm, the flower buds poke up, and the buyers come out to start the spring buying season. It hasn’t happened that way this year.

Prices had gone through the ceiling by the end of 2021, much of the activity stimulated by fear of escalating mortgage interest rates. Usher in 2022–January and February were typically slow and in March home sales bounced up like an indicator of business as usual. But, interest rates continued to climb and April ended with the total number of home sales down instead of up. Likewise, total sales dollars were down across the South Bay.

Number of Homes Sold

Judging from the charts, entry level homes in the Harbor area were clearly the center of activity for South Bay real estate. As interest rates pushed against the 5% mark, panic set in among first time buyers who had been outbid multiple times. Prices went up as high as buyers could afford, a number that shrinks amazingly fast with each tenth of a percent increase in the interest rate.

Across the South Bay, the number of homes sold in April dropped by -4% from March, which had been an increase of 59% over the prior month. As we see from the chart below, sales were uneven between the various areas.

On the entry level front, at the same time Harbor area home sales were dropping off, Inland homes gained sales. On the high end, sales on the Palos Verdes peninsula were also facing declining numbers, while Beach area sales increased.

So far declining sales counts have been modest, but a decline overall, coupled with a decline in half of the individual areas covered indicates that buyers are pulling back. Part of the resistance is a matter of simply being priced out of the market. Another important piece is the anticipation of price corrections in the near future. We have heard multiple buyers say they are watching and waiting for lower prices later this year.

At this point we’re well into the second quarter of the year and it looks as though those folks may be on track for some savings. even some of our most gung-ho pundits are beginning to see a market downturn on the horizon.

Median Price Sold

Interestingly, Harbor area prices went up at the same time the number of sales went down.The March to April price increase was a modest +6% compared to a +21% increase over April of last year. Similarly, the Beach cities had a month over month increase of +4%, while showing +19% year over year. While sales prices are still rising in those areas, the increase is a fraction of what it was last year.

Sold prices on the Hill continued to slide downwards. Because the February increase in the median price was created by the sale of new construction, and that building phase is now sold out, a downward turn in median price is expected. We anticipate that leveling off soon.

In the Inland area the median price for homes sold during April of 2022, was +12% greater than sales in April of 2021. By comparison, the median price of those sold in March of 2022 versus April of 2022 decreased by -1%. It’s a modest decrease that points to the direction of the South Bay real estate market for the balance of the year.

Area Sales Dollars

The total dollar value of home sales in the South Bay usually tracks right along with the number of units sold. The few times it differs are important times like these when the number of homes sold is dropping, and/or the sales prices are dropping. Today, of the four areas we track, PV Hill has a declining number of sales, both in comparison to last year and in comparison to last month. As we noted above, the area also is declining in total dollars compared to last year and last month.

As we discussed in last month’s issue, some of the reason for the drop is found in new construction homes that sold at a much higher price than the typical Palos Verdes resale home. The rest of it can be found in longer days on market waiting for a buyer, and in price reductions.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Beach cities showed gains last month for both number of units sold and for the total sales value of those homes. The only decline this month for the Beach was in number sold compared to April of last year. Sales this April were off by -21%.

The Harbor area still trended upward in dollar value, both month over month and year over year. But, the number of units sold was down for both time measurements. The price competition was very stiff in what is generally an entry level market. During the past couple years, bidding wars and over-asking sales prices have kept the dollars high. The April numbers show that changing rapidly.

Total dollar sales for the Inland community increased 15% month over month. That was the highest growth of all four areas. Scanning those individual transactions showed an odd pattern. Sales in the price range from about $325K up to about $750K were a familiar mix of some under asking price, some at asking and some above asking. The degree of variance was about what one would expect. Unexpectedly, for sales over $750K, nearly every property sold above asking price, and in many cases well above asking.

We found no clear explanation for why this phenomena occurred. There is a suspicion that buyers who were priced out of Beach properties may have shifted their bidding wars into the increasingly popular parts of west Torrance. This theory is supported by the distribution of sales among the various neighborhoods.

In Summary

In the table below are the core statistics comparing April to March of this year, and comparing April of this year to April of 2021. The prevalence of negative numbers is convincing evidence that high prices and high interest rates are pushing the South Bay real estate market into a recession.

Notable Properties

One of the more interesting properties sold in April is a four bedroom, five bathroom home located in west Torrance. The home was purchased by the seller as their family home in 1990 for just above $360K. The children grew up and the parents remodeled in 2022 and sold the house.

As would be expected in a good neighborhood with a contemporary remodel, the home sold for over the asking price of $2.7M. The final selling price was slightly over $3M. and just happened to be almost exactly $360K over the asking price.

In the 32 years that family owned the home it appreciated at an average rate in excess of $84K per year. It’s the classic “American Dream.”

Main photo by Amy Vosters on Unsplash

Inflation Hits Los Angeles: South Bay Real Estate – March 2022

The Federal Reserve Bank tries to keep annual inflation at around 2%. Over the past 12 months the median price increase of a home in the South Bay ranged from 7% (Inland area) to 32% (PV Hill). Clearly housing in the LA area is exceeding the desired inflation rate.

The recent Fed report to Congress stated, “Mortgage rates for households remain low despite recent increases.” In other words, the Fed considers 5% mortgage rates to be “low.” As part of the battle to control runaway inflation, the Fed is expected to implement rate increases. Estimates for how much higher we can expect mortgage rates to rise in the coming year range from approximately 1% to 2% more.

Rates currently at about 5%, we can already see an impact on sales volume and prices in our local monthly data. Real estate industry pundits are projecting an imminent recession. Some say “mild, in 2023.” Some are comparing the current market environment to the 2007 lead-up to the Great Recession. Keeping a probable recession in mind, let’s look at the March sales data.

Sales Volume

March is the month when South Bay denizens shake off the winter doldrums and get serious about real estate. The chart last year looked very similar to this. This year the Hill and the Beach were up slightly from last year. The Inland and Harbor areas increased at the same rate as in 2021. Compared to last year’s market, 2022 is distinctly more normal.

The chart makes it look like the Harbor area took an especially large leap in March. That’s just because the Harbor area is so much larger and so many more homes are sold there than the other three areas.. On a percentile basis, sales of Beach homes actually increased at a steeper rate. Sales at the Beach were up from the prior month by 71%, while Harbor area sales increased by 61%.

Normally, we would expect the sales volume to level off now and remain roughly a even line until winter when sales taper off again. If, in the battle to contain inflation, mortgage interest rates climb as fast as the Fed has indicated, we can expect to see the number of homes selling decline. We expect buyers who must buy will adjust the size of the purchase to meet their financing capability. Buyers who aren’t compelled to buy will probably delay and wait for better circumstances.

Median Price

Today, the best measure of home prices is comparing to last month. The market in 2021 was recovering, so some statistics are comparable, while others are still showing signs of impact from the pandemic.

March gave us a month-to-month downturn of -4% on the Hill. Of course, if you remember from last month, February saw escrow close on several new construction homes. Those units pushed the median price exceptionally high, so what we’re seeing now is a return to normal.

While median prices on the Hill were dipping, the Harbor area was flat. Prices there were +4% in January, slowed to +1% in February and had no change in March. This is the largest market area in the South Bay and is often a precursor for change.

The Beach and the Inland areas show continuing price increases of 3% and 5% respectively. Looking back to the first of the year, the Beach has been varied. The March price shift at the Beach is down from the February increase of 6%, but is up from the January decrease of -12%. The Inland numbers show steady growth from -2% in January to +5% in March.

Monthly Sales Dollars

The dollar value of March sales in the South Bay showed positive increases for all areas for the first time this year. This is important because normal growth in our capitalist system will almost always show the sold value from the current year to be larger than that of the preceeding year. The negative numbers from January and February are reflections of the troubled economics of 2021.

We expect the sales dollars to level out as the median price pulls back to a normal growth pattern. If the Fed is to realize any kind of reasonable slowdown for inflation, the monthly median prices have to stabilize at a rate of increase barely above zero. As of March the cumulative median for each area ranges from +3% to +20%. We’re not going to get to +2% inflation with those results.

The Statistics

Supposedly, charts are easier to read for most people. I like to include this table because it packs all the data from the three charts above, plus background detail, into a fraction of the space. Here we see the specific quanties sold in each area, plus the median price of the area, for the month of March.

% symbol indicates no change from prior period.

More importantly, the table shows at a glance how March 2022 compared to February of this year, and March of last year. All four areas currently have increasing sales, in part because the inventory is growing. In addition, there’s a bit of panic from the rapid interest rate increase.

At the same time, the table quickly shows that the median price has moderated in all four areas from what was happening in 2021.

Notable Sales

The South Bay in Los Angeles is a highly diverse area. In the distance of a few minutes it’s possible to drive from the lowest priced property sold in March to the highest priced property sold in March.

This studio condo in Long Beach sold for $249,900. It offers 441 sqft of airspace, no assigned parking, has an HOA fee of $149, and was originally built in 1913.

This 7 bedroom, 15 bathroom house in Palos Verdes Estates sold for $17,150,000. It offers 13,000 sqft on a 3 acre lot, has 5 garage spaces and was built in 2006.

Main photograph by Randy Jose on Unsplash

February 2022 Real Estate News for Los Angeles South Bay

Palos Verdes New Home Sales Surprise!

February sales data carried a surprise for South Bay residents. With fewer monthly sales than last year, the median price for PV homes sold has made a huge jump. The average number of homes sold on the Hill in 2021 was 88, and December recorded 87 sales. January saw 47 sales and February 60. At the same time the sales volume was dropping, the median sales price jumped by over 33%! (Details at Median Prices below.)

Sales in the Harbor area were up 5% from last month. Increased real estate activity and prices in the Harbor have been anticipated for some time now and are gradually coming to fruition. The multi-billion dollar investment in the West Harbor commercial development has spawned a number of smaller development projects throughout San Pedro. On the east side, Long Beach has been steadily adding infrastructure across much of the city. The net result is improved real estate markets across the Harbor area.

The number of homes sold in the Beach cities was essentially flat with 75 sold in January and 76 in February. This is however significantly down from the average monthly sales of 159 units in 2021, and from the December sales of 132 units. In a unique twist, the drop in sales volume is a return to sales numbers we were experiencing before the Covid19 pandemic.

In a further shift downward, Inland home sales dropped off from an average of 168 in 2021 and a total of 160 homes sold in December. January fell to 119 and February fell again to 105 homes sold. A modest decline in sales volume is expected during the winter months. Once again, as we saw at the Beach, we’re seeing the same return to pre-pandemic numbers for Inland home sales. One could almost think things are normal again.

Median Prices Going Up, Up & Up

Take a look at what’s happening with PV prices. That yellow line on the chart below shows an explosion in median prices on the Hill. Pre-pandemic, the median was just under $1.5M. January it was $1.7M–February it’s $2.3M.

We found that 19 newly constructed residences have been sold at the Rolling Hills Country Club development over the past six months. Those homes sold for a median price of $4.1M, boosting the median dramatically and adding $80M to cumulative sales for the Hill.

The median for Beach cities home sales is up $100K from January and stands at $1.6M, up from the pre-pandemic median of $1.3M. Harbor area and Inland prices are similarly up showing signs of a pending correction from the overly enthusiastic bidding wars of the past couple years.

We anticipate a leveling of the median prices across the South Bay, with the exception of unique circumstances like new construction at the Rolling Hills Country Club. As the Federal Reserve Bank increases interest rates, some buyers will drop out of the market. Sales are expected to slow while time on the market expands and prices contract.

Cumulative Home Sales Dollars

We wrote above about the steep yellow line for sales on the Hill. If nothing else, adding $60M to the monthly sales total should serve to demonstrate that if someone will build homes, they will sell.

The Beach and Harbor areas are both up about $20M over January numbers. Although slower than it was last year, the demand for housing is still strong.

Inland total sales dollars are down $6M for the month of February. Occasionally we see February sales totals drop from January, however it’s rare. We suspect the sales decline for the Inland area is a harbinger of the future for all of the South Bay.

The Statistics

As usual we’ll close with the statistics for last month as compared to the prior month and compared to the same month last year. The negative numbers (red) will quickly show that Inland home sales declined from January to February. Glancing at the other areas, we can see the Beach area volume was a mere 1% growth, while the Harbor showed strong sales and PV went through the roof compared to prior month.

Three red blocks jump out comparing to February of 2021. This is not surprising considering we were well into a panic buying season this time last year. This is reminiscent of most months in 2021 when we were able to only compare to the prior month because of Covid-contaminated statistics.

The strong Harbor area performance stands out here. A 4% gain over last year versus a 30% drop in volume at the Beach is certainly something to watch next month!

Photo by Olga Subach on Unsplash

January 2022 Real Estate News for Los Angeles South Bay

January 2022 showed a different face than we were seeing all last year. Of course, in many respects that’s a good thing. Depending on whether you’re buying or selling, the real estate market for 2022 could be wonderful or horrible. As always, the location will make an even bigger difference.

Sales Volume Dropping

Check out all the red ink in the table below. Compared to December, sales volume is down by nearly 50% at the Beach and on the Hill. November and December of 2021 were heavy with transactions spurred on by the fear of increasing interest rates. The number of homes sold in comparison to January of last year also dropped, though not to as great an extent.

As of right now interest rates are expected to hover in the 3.5% to 4% range for the balance of the year. The increase from under 3% to roughly 3.5% has served to lock a substantial portion of entry level buyers into the rental pool. Those who found a place and could afford to buy last year did. The first part of this year is expected to continue to show declining sales volume as many first time buyers drop out of the purchasing market.

Prices Starting to Reverse Direction

Prices meanwhile are faltering in the unsustainable march upward. As the table above shows, the Beach and the Inland areas have already begun declines in the median price. Simultaneously buyers in the Harbor and Palos Verdes communities have continued pushing purchase prices higher, though not nearly as fast as last year.

We expect price corrections in all four areas as the year rolls out. Initially, we anticipate buyers in the Inland and Harbor areas to balk at the combination of higher interest rates and historically higher prices. Lower priced homes are traditionally impacted sooner and to a greater degree by changes in mortgage interest.

Homes on the Palos Verdes Peninsula and in the Beach communities of the South Bay are expected to also experience price declines as the market adjusts to the new reality of higher prices, steeper interest rates and the shrinking impact of Covid.

The Covid Connection

Covid wreaked havoc with social lives, business practices and just about every other aspect of society. When the pandemic struck in 2020 the real estate world was already heated because of low interest rates. Unfortunately, protecting society from Covid meant slowing down much of the business world, including real estate transactions. For months agents were dealing with masks, alcohol gel and the task of wiping every surface touched by potential buyers. And the buyers kept coming because the interest rates made buying a home affordable for many.

By the time 2021 started, the industry had found ways to show property and ways to consummate paperwork with relative safety from Covid. Keeping one eye on the mortgage interest rate, the buying public responded promptly. It was one of the busiest years ever for brokers and agents. As the year ended and lenders continued raising the cost of purchase loans, buyers started showing signs of stress.

January appears to have been the fulcrum point for a shift in market dynamics. The people involved are more than ready for relief from Covid. Bidding wars have all but ended. Price reductions are coming after only a few weeks on the market. The State has declared Covid “endemic.” Essentially we’re ready for normal business.

The first month of the year has pointed in the direction of a slowing market, with some pricing shifts to compensate for over-exuberant purchases in the close out of 2021. We anticipate February to show more of the same. We’ll be back soon with charts comparing the monthly progress. (You’ll find the beginning charts for 2022 at the bottom. Not real exciting without data to compare.)

The High Sale and the Low Sale

We’ve had requests for a little “human interest” added to the dry statistics we throw out here every month. We’re going to try to do that while still maintaining privacy for the people involved. Let us know how we’re doing.

For example, an observation we made this past month was the highest sale versus the lowest sale as reported by TheMLS for January. Those of you who follow us know the Beach areas are invariably at the top of the chart, so you won’t be surprised to find that the highest sale in January was in the Manhattan Beach hill section. New in 2021, this expansive 6 bed, 6.5 bath home sold for $6.5M. At nearly 6500 square feet, that’s over $1,000 per sq ft.

It’s far from the highest price we’ve seen there, but that piqued our curiousity. So we looked to the other end and found the lowest January sale in our part of the South Bay. Down from 6500 sq ft to 400 sq ft, and from $6.5M to $255K, this studio condo in Long Beach calculates out to a hair over $600 per sq ft. In other words, about 60% of the cost to build new construction in Manhattan Beach.

2022 Charts – The Beginning Point

The first chart of the year is less than exciting. We’ve included them here for reference. In March, when we can compare January to February and we can be confident we are past the bulk of the pandemic, these should be much more interesting and informative.

2021 Real Estate Summary – Los Angeles South Bay

2020 versus 2021

2021 was a year of tears for many people. But, not so for most South Bay property owners. Briefly, median sales prices across the area increased between 9% (the Inland areas) and 24% (on the Hill). Those are incredibly large increases. To put it in perspective, the median price increase the previous year, 2020, was less than half that, ranging from 4% (at the beach) to 9% (Hill and Inland).

Similarly, the year over prior year sales volume for 2021 was up in a range from 18% (harbor area) to 22% (beach and hill). This compared to a range from decline of 6% (inland area) to an increase of 7% (hill) for 2020.

Along with median sales value increasing and number of units sold increasing, we also saw astronomical increases in total sales dollars for the year. The change from 2020 to 2021 ranged from 33% (harbor) to 52% (hill). That compared to a range from 2% (inland) to 20% (hill) for the transition from 2019 to 2020.

These huge percentages are uncomfortably like the years 2006 and 2007 leading up to the Great Recession. It’s highly unlikely that 2022 will continue at this pace. We anticipate the year starting out with listings priced on the high end, with subsequent price reductions as “distressed” properties come on the market with more appealing prices.

So called “distressed” properties include those which have been hidden from the market by the Covid-inspired moratorium on foreclosures and evictions. Now that lenders are allowed to process foreclosures, we are beginning to see properties come on the market as “pre-foreclosure.” Here in the South Bay we have yet to see any significant number of bank-owned property come on the market, though at least ten distressed homes have been listed in the past three months in Los Angeles county.

In the end, most real estate sales involve a family home where buying or selling is dictated by events beyond the property owner’s control rather than by market trends. Births, deaths and new employment top the list of reasons for transactions that will happen regardless of market conditions. If you anticipate a need to sell in the next few months, we recommend you consult with your broker/agent early. Ask about marketing or negotiating techniques that will deliver the best result in a slowing market given your circumstances.

Year-End Housing Sales Drop

Regular readers will recognize that we’ve been seeing the sales volume declining for a couple months now. On the one hand, it’s understandable because we report actual sales results, as opposed to seasonally adjusted results. Being the winter season, sales are slower.

On the other hand, nearly everyone has been ignoring the white elephant in the marketplace. Let’s face it, prices have gone up dramatically, the interest rate is climbing at a quickening pace, and inflation is on the rise. Combined, those factors foretell fewer qualified buyers, more inventory on the market and some pullback on the recent price increases. We’ll talk more about that next month when we take a first look at real estate in 2022. If you’re about to make a move and need information sooner, give us a call.

Sales quantity fell off from the November numbers everywhere except in the Palos Verdes area. There we found a healthy 10% increase in activity for December. (With a hundred or fewer units sold in any given month, statistics related to sales volume on the Hill can have some wild variations.) Sales rose by 10% from last month, but fell 11% from last year.

Harbor area sales slowed the most in the South Bay. Of course, sales there and in the Inland cities had increased dramatically early in the year. The confluence of low interest rates threatening to go up, with burgeoning demand from first time buyers, drove sales numbers all year. As the mortgage interest rate passed three percent, many of those first timers fell out of the market.

Year-End Median Prices Mixed

Palos Verdes homes brought in 24% more in median prices last year than the year before, which was 9% above 2019. Most of the 2021 increase came in the first three months of the year. Prices were stable for the summer before dropping in the fall. At the same time, Beach homes went up 19% in 2021, compared to a 4% increase in 2020 over 2019. Much the same in the Harbor area, median prices doubled, up 15% over 2020, compared to 7% above 2019.

In an interesting anomaly, prices in the Inland increased 9% over last year, which was 9% above 2019. It seems the purchasing mania and bidding wars didn’t have as much impact to Inland areas.

By mid-year all areas had seen one or two months of declining median prices on a month-to-month basis. As the year wore on, the “down” months grew and the “up” months shrank. Despite the year-over-year median price being up, three out of the final six months of the year saw declining median prices in all areas.

On a month over month basis, selling prices on the Hill were the most impacted in December, dropping 10% from November. Harbor area homes fell by 4%, while Inland property values were up 6% and homes at the Beach grew 7%.

The Beach areas enjoyed significant appreciation in 2021. Prices at the Beach started the year at just over $1.4M, moved quickly up to $1.7M in August, then lost $150K of those gains before springing up to close the year out at a median price of nearly $1.8M.

Year-End Total Sales Dollars

The total dollar value of all the homes sold in the South Bay in a given month or year is probably only useful to investors or economists. At the same time it can be instructive by way of demostrating market direction. For example, let’s look to total sales on a monthly basis.

In total dollars South Bay homes sales for 2021 were up 38% from 2020 sales. That compares to a 10% increase from 2019 to 2020. Looking at individual months, the bulk of that revenue increase happened between January and July. By August the 2020 to 2021 increases had slowed to single digits. By December, the Beach and Inland areas were already seeing monthly declines compared to 2020.

The December year-to-year decline in total sales dollars was only 5% at the Beach but compare that to an increase of 156% in April. The Inland areas dropped 3% for the same period, compared to a 159% increase in sales for May. Harbor area sales were up 8% compared to 106% in May. Palos Verdes December sales were up 2% compared to 228% in May.

What does all this mean? For most of 2021 we cautioned readers that year to year comparisons were problematic because in 2020 no one was truly prepared for Covid. Business exploded in the first three quarters of 2020. It took until August and September of 2021 to get past the previous year’s damage, so camparisons were even explicable. Until then nothing is there to compare to. Businesses were locked down. Consumers and retailers alike were hunkered down at home. That’s why 2021 annual percentages are so large–they’re an anomaly! Only the last few months of 2021 are valid comparisons to historically relevant statistics.

In Summary

From our perspective it looks like we’re headed into a correction. One might even look at it as a correction from a correction. It’s as though the real estate market over-corrected from the Covid collapse and boomed for about three quarters. Now we’re coming back down to some pretty solid numbers.

We expect January 2022 to look a lot like this table, with some moderation of the numbers. That moderation should continue into the year as sellers and buyers move closer together on their initial expectations. By the end of summer we predict the market will show the first indications of pulling together for another roughly 10 year cycle.

We like to think of the proverbial real estate cycle as three steps forward–one step back. It’s important to note that this is the “back step” of the cycle. As such, it’s probably the lowest price a purchaser can expect to see for that product in the next decade, if ever again. At the same time, it’s probably the last opportunity for a seller to trade up without having to make significant upgrades to the product, or taking a big hit for deferred maintenance. By 2023 we should be working on building long term market value.

Thank you for reading. Our lead photo is courtesy of Michael Fallon. See https://unsplash.com/@fallonmichaeltx . As always, we’re here if you have a question or want to bounce an idea off us.

November 2021 Real Estate – Los Angeles South Bay

Sales Volume Declining

Real estate sales prices in the Los Angeles South Bay for November were mixed on declining sales volume. The declining volume is to be expected, given that we’re entering the slower winter selling season. Even SoCal slows down a little bit in the winter.

Another obvious impact is coming from the economic disruption of the coronavirus pandemic. The appearance of the omicron variant just as we begin year end celebrations has struck a fearful chord among more vulnerable segments of the population. So there are multiple reasons for the number of units sold to drop as it has for most of the South Bay.

Statistics show Palos Verdes as the only area to have an increase in sales for November. Looking more in depth, we discover this is actually the second month in succession that PV sales volume has been well below the 2021 average of 89 units monthly. September sales were exceptionally good at 114 units sold, then October plummeted to 73 before coming back up to 79 in November.

Median Price Mixed

Changes to the median price ranged from -2% in PV to +10% at the Beach. The +10 percent at the Beach makes up for price drops in September and October. Sales prices have been relatively stable since March in all areas.

It’s important to remember that the number of homes in the Beach cities and on the Palos Verdes peninsula is quite a bit smaller than either the Harbor or the Inland areas. The smaller sample size causes sharper and more dramatic looking movements in the charts.

We expect to end the year 2021 with strong price appreciation. However, early forecasts for 2022 are coming in with warnings about downward pressure on prices as a result of an anticipated increase in short sales and foreclosures. Because lenders were prevented from processing evictions during the pandemic, homeowners who were not able to pay their mortgage are now facing possible refinance, short sale or foreclosure. Some sources expect 3-5% of next years sales to be “distressed” transactions.

Monthly Sales Dollars

Cumulative dollars per month of residential sales started the year way down on the charts. Home buyers and sellers alike were at a loss as to where the pandemic was going and sat still. March brought activity back to the real estate market as sales–and sale prices–raced upward.

As the chart shows market conditions bounced up or down through most of the year as the public mood shifted with the ebb and flow of Covid-19 surges and successes.

As we near the end of a rocky, uneven year we’re seeing the monthly sales numbers settle into a more rational pattern. It’s the winter season, so the minor drop-off in sales we see in the charts is to be expected. December should be slightly lower, giving us a gentle end to 2021.

The Stats

Year-to-year statistics for the first half of 2021 were essentially useless because we were comparing “apples to oranges.” The first quarter of 2020 was “business as normal” and the second quarter was significantly reduced as the pandemic brought sales activity to a near halt.

By the second half of 2020 protocols for showing and selling property became established and business started returning to something close to normal. Mortgage interest rates were still under 3% creating solid motivation for buying and selling. And there were more buyers than sellers resulting in bidding wars and rapidly escalating prices.

Much of that activity slowed when the the “winter surge” of Covid hit. Homes were still selling, but at a slower pace from October through February of 2021. Then March and warmer weather arrived, which combined with the increasing number of vaccinated individuals, put the real estate market into overdrive.

Compared to last year November shows the number of sales slower in the Harbor and PV Hill areas, while sales have picked up at the Beach and Inland. Though sales are slower, the price increases have abated very little. Home affordability is slated to become even more of a problem than it has been in LA.

Main Photo by Paul Hanaoka on Unsplash

Oct. 2021 – Real Estate Sales Los Angeles South Bay

October is the turning point where the heat and excitement of summer cools, the children are back to school–in person this year–and the real estate market starts to button up for the winter. Being SoCal as we are, we don’t button up as much as most of the nation, but things do slow considerably between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day.

We’re seeing normalcy appear more and more often, now that the pandemic is winding down. During the first quarter of 2021 we watched month-over-month volume changes ranging from a 33% decline to a 69% increase. Seeing some of the monthly statistics moving back into the single digits is highly encouraging.

Throughout this year we have essentially ignored the comparison of 2021 to 2020. The “Lost Year” of 2020, compounded as it was with the pandemic and what was anticipated to be a minor recession, has been a nightmare in terms of short term business projections. Trying to understand where the real estate market is headed, we have resorted to comparing two or three month trends, which is more or less like playing the slots.

Now in the fall of the year, looking at slower winter months ahead, rationality seems to be returning in the statistics we’re seeing–not all– but, most.

Sales Volume – Some Down, Some Up

As we can see by the yellow line in the chart below, Palos Verdes sales volume took a big dive this month. The Harbor was up, the Beach was up, but the inland was down and sales on the PV Hill was way down.

We’re not able to see any outstanding reason for the 36% drop in the number of homes sold in PV for October versus September. Similarly, the Inland area loss of 11% in the number of units sold during October, is inexplicable. But then, much of what we’ve experienced in the time of Covid has been lacking in explanation. For good or bad, we’re adapting to dramatic shifts in the world.

By comparison to Palos Verdes, the Beach which has been losing sales volume since mid year, turned up for the month, increasing the number of homes sold by 4%.

The chart shows the Harbor area having the greatest variance in month-to-month sales numbers during the first half of the year. Since June the shifts have been more gentle.

Median Price – Down Everywhere

October brought a decline in the median price of sold homes in all four segments of the market. The Beach Cities dropped another 7% this month, after having fallen 3% last month.

From a broad perspective, two things are happening. The mundane answer is the time of year. It’s fall and it’s often possible to get a better deal in fall or winter because there are fewer buyers competing in the market. The size of these percentages imply there are more than seasonal reasons.

A more exotic explanation involves the underlying motivation for the steep increases in price from May of 2020 to June of this year. Those prices were reactions to the low interest rates combined with a persistent shortage of available homes. Bidding wars drove prices up at rates that aren’t sustainable. Forecasts call for as much as a 15% overall increase in median prices at the end of the year. A typical year will be closer to 4% inflation, so as mortgage interest rates increase (they’re over 3% as I write this) we’ll have downward pressure on prices.

At the same time, Federal loan forebearance related to Covid ended September 30. Nationwide projections indicate approximately 17% of owners who were in forebearance are currently unable to make payments and don’t have a plan. Another 7% have a plan. They plan to sell. Nationally, we could see 20% of a million homes added to the inventory in coming months.

Locally, we’ve seen a handful of pre-foreclosure and foreclosure properties come on the market. Currently there are 4 Active, and 8 In Escrow, with 13 Sold in the past six months.

All of which is to say we forecast a correction in prices.

Total Sales Dollars – A Big Dive for PV

Look at the yellow line in the chart below! October saw a noticeable drop in Palos Verdes volume. Here, we see that convert to a sharp decline in cumulative sales dollars. A drop in median prices from September to October multiplied by a decline in the number of hones sold resulted in a $150M drop in total sales for the month. By comparison, the other areas showed mixed results, with moderate numbers.

This is a good time to remind readers that these four broad categories we use for this analysis are defined by the type of housing predominantly found in the area. As a matter of geological necessity, there are fewer homes at the Beach and on the Hill than there are Inland, or in a Harbor city. Probability dictates that we occasionally have statistical results that look dramatic, but are simply an anomaly resulting from the small number of homes we’re dealing with in any given month.

The Summary

We expect 2021 to leave us with a solid real estate market, albeit with some correction to inflated median prices, The October vs. September numbers clearly show some price resistance. Sales volume is mixed, showing some hesitance to buy on the Hill or Inland. The Beach Cities and Harbor areas both still show ready, willing and able buyers.

We wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving and a wonderful Holiday Season!

Main photo by Julianne Takes Photos on Unsplash

September 2021 Real Estate – LA South Bay

Sales Volume Mixed, Down at Beach

Compared to last month, overall sales increased slightly. The chart below shows that since March the number of units sold has remained relatively stable. Sales at the Beach were down 10% in September, while all other areas of the South
Bay registered increases.

The number of Palos Verdes homes sold in September shows a strong 10% growth above August after remaining flat through the summer. That volume increase on the hill was over-shadowed by a 12% increase in the Inland cities. Sales volume in the Harbor area was nearly flat with only a 1% increase in activity.

Sales Prices Up in the Harbor

While the number of homes sold was low at the Harbor, median prices there increased the most of the South Bay. Harbor area prices in September were up 5% from the prior month. Prices on the PV peninsula rose by 3% as did prices in the Inland cities.

The Beach cities dropped into negative territory on pricing as well as volume. Median sold prices at the Beach were down 3% from August.

Looking back over the year, it’s interesting to note that the Inland and Harbor area home prices have remained close to level all year. Both areas have shown modest increases of about $100K, attained gradually over the year. By comparison, the median sales price in Palos Verdes jumped nearly $400K before levelling off in April. Similarly, median prices at the Beach climbed about $200K before stabilizing in May.

Area Sales Dollars Climbing in PV

Homes sales in the Palos Verdes cities increased in both sales volume and median price. Combined those increases catapulted the September sales dollars for peninsula properties upward by over $50M. This results from a trend we’ve been watching this year where median PV home prices are out-pacing Beach homes by $200K-$300K every month.

This is a change in the norm. In 2020, in the midst of the pandemic, median prices were close between homes sold at the Beach and those sold on the Peninsula. PV home prices were usually higher, but not always, and not by very much. In 2019, before the pandemic, PV and Beach median prices were nearly the same, with PV often having the higher number.

Statistics – by Month, by Year

We continue to ignore the comparison between the current month in 2021 versus the same month in 2020. The pandemic influenced statistics are too far from normal to show meaningful relationships. The current month versus last month is impacted also, though to a lesser extent. For example, monthly increases of 10%-19% in median price bespeak runaway inflation. Similarly, increases of 5% every month are not reasonable, nor are they sustainable.

We’ve had questions about median price versus average price–which is better and why. We use median, which is halfway between the highest and the lowest sale. Being at the exact midpoint tends to give a more accurate picture of the whole market, as opposed to an average, which can be more easily skewed by an abnormally high or low sale.

Pricing – The Highs and the Lows

It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking that some neighborhoods are expensive and some are inexpensive. While that can be true of smaller geographic areas, most larger areas have a healthy amount of price variance in the available housing. Below we’ve included the highest and lowest rounded sale prices in the four broad areas we review.

Area
Beach
Harbor
Palos Verdes
Inland

Low Sale
$475K
$200K
$470K
$300K

High Sale
$16.5M
$2.6M
$9.0M
$2.3M

The prices shown are the extremes as recorded on TheMLS as of the third day of the month. We allow three days for agents, brokerages and the various multiple listing services to update records before we start our analysis.

One observation jumps off the page immediately. The variance in price is much more dramatic at the high end. The range among areas at the low end is from about $200K to $475K, a spread of $275K. Expressed in percentages, the high price is 237% above than the low.

At the upper end, the variance in price ranges from $2.3M to $16.5M, a spread of $14.2M. This time, expressed in percentages, the high price is 717% higher than the low.

So, what does $200K buy in the South Bay? This time it was a one bedroom, one bathroom “fixer” condo in downtown Long Beach. On the ground floor, with 580 square feet of space.

And $16.5M brings you six bedrooms, with seven bathrooms in 5715 square feet, a three car garage, a dedicated home theatre, and stunning ocean views from the Manhattan Strand.

Main Photo by Joseph Ngabo on Unsplash

July South Bay Real Estate Slows – Takes Back Prices

Even with mortgage interest rates under 3% the July market had a hard time keeping momentum. March looked like a game changer, but May went soft. Total dollar sales were up in June but by July prices and sales volume were both headed down again.

So what’s going on here? Sales are yo-yoing across the charts like the economy can’t make up it’s mind. Are we leaving a pandemic or entering one? Banks have started raising the interest rates multiple times. Each time buyers walk away and the rates come down again.

The Coronavirus pandemic has been so pervasive most of us haven’t noticed there is a concurrent recession happening. One pundit I follow recently referred to it as a “two month recession–the shortest in history.” That’s a great punch line, but highly mis-leading. Real estate is a long term business proposition, not an impulse buy.

That’s part of the reason forecasting is so challenging this year. The statistics we would normally compare are last year versus this year. To do so is meaningless in today’s situation because last year was anything but normal and the result of a comparison makes no sense. To demonstrate, this table shows the comparison from this month to last month of the current year, and from last month of the current year to the same month last year.

Is the market good? Or just looking good?

Notice that comparing June to July of 2021, nearly every statistic is negative. Quantity sold was up 3% for the Inland cities, but down in all other areas. Prices were flat in the Harbor area, but down in all other areas. Looking just at the current stats, it looks like a slowing market.

However, it’s easy to portray everything as rosy when you only compare 2021 activity to 2020 activity. Reading it that way, sales volume is down 2% at the Beach, but volume and pricing are up in big numbers everywhere else. For those readers who like to study punditry, watch the authors you read to see who compares both ways, versus who only talks about positive numbers.

Sales volume flat last four months

By March of this year, all areas took a big jump upward in the number of units sold. The Harbor area, which is often the most friendly to first time buyers, took the biggest jump increasing from roughly 350 units per month to nearly 500 units per month.

Since March the number of units sold has remained stubbornly flat across the South Bay. The Harbor area showed strong activity, recovering almost immediately from a sharp dip in May.

Prices flat last four months

More accurately, Beach prices have been flat the last three months after a $100K jump in May. Inland and Harbor prices have seen very little change since the first of 2021. PV moved upward from January through April, picking up about $400K in median price appreciation. Since then the Hill has also been stable.

Usually more stable than the Beach or the Hill, the median Inland prices have remained very close to their starting point in January. Harbor area prices have bumped up about $100K since the first of the year. We see some of that in appreciation related to retail growth and renewal in San Pedro. On the Long Beach side, we’ve seen good appreciation in the first time buyer community and in the 1-4 rental community.

In summary, real estate in the Los Angeles Suth Bay is on the mend. Don’t mistake that for astronomical growth. We’re getting back to where we were and leveling out.

Photo by Mark König on Unsplash